2009 · Week 3

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

17·24

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

36.5

Model margin

+7.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJets
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.060
  • 40.8%Success rate39.7%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback-0.151
  • -0.026EPA / rush+0.011
  • 9.0%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -2.63CPOE-5.62
  • 41.0%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.61
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. NYJ are 11-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NYJ @ TEN23–10NYJ
2024 · W2NYJ @ TEN24–17NYJ
2021 · W4TEN @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2018 · W13NYJ @ TEN22–26TEN
2015 · W14TEN @ NYJ8–30NYJ
2014 · W15NYJ @ TEN16–11NYJ
2013 · W4NYJ @ TEN13–38TEN
2012 · W15NYJ @ TEN10–14TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001073Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 9:4000Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 9:31519Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 6:5137Punt0–14
NYJQ1 5:19617Punt0–14
TENQ1 2:1532Punt0–14
NYJQ1 0:57410Turnover0–14
TENQ2 14:471055Touchdown7–14
NYJQ2 9:2435Punt7–14
TENQ2 7:38737Turnover on downs7–14
NYJQ2 4:4630Punt7–14
TENQ2 4:2420Turnover7–14
NYJQ2 3:4331Punt7–14
TENQ2 1:541165Field goal10–14
NYJQ2 0:0810End of half10–14
TENQ3 15:00760Touchdown17–14
NYJQ3 11:343-7Punt17–14
TENQ3 9:3033Punt17–14
NYJQ3 8:2834Punt17–14
NYJQ3 6:56423Touchdown17–21
TENQ3 5:0735Punt17–21
NYJQ3 3:23523Punt17–21
TENQ4 15:003-1Punt17–21
NYJQ4 13:30448Field goal17–24
TENQ4 11:36432Punt17–24
NYJQ4 9:5235Punt17–24
TENQ4 8:1830Punt17–24
NYJQ4 7:1622Turnover17–24
TENQ4 6:22517Turnover17–24
NYJQ4 4:13410Punt17–24
TENQ4 2:5254Turnover on downs17–24
NYJQ4 1:4800End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins15/3717012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson22974.40
LenDale White7273.91
Kerry Collins133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt46590
Alge Crumpler46410
Justin Gage410370
Nate Washington29251
Chris Johnson1480
Jared Cook0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez17/3017121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leon Washington12463.80
Thomas Jones14201.40
Mark Sanchez4102.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery8121081
Dustin Keller24240
Brad Smith22180
Chansi Stuckey26110
Leon Washington1260
Thomas Jones1220
Ben Hartsock1121

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.0%5.7%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.58