Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
36.5
Model margin
+7.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.060
- 40.8%Success rate39.7%
- +0.042EPA / dropback-0.151
- -0.026EPA / rush+0.011
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.63CPOE-5.62
- 41.0%Third-down rate37.4%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.79Points / drive1.61
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. NYJ are 11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 15/37 | 170 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 22 | 97 | 4.4 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 4 | 10 | 37 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 9 | 25 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 17/30 | 171 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 20 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 8 | 12 | 108 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ben Hartsock | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.58