2012 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

13·10

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

40

Model margin

+1.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.002EPA / play-0.007
  • 41.6%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.019EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.168
  • 6.6%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +1.17CPOE+0.59
  • 34.3%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.66
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:0049Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:301021Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:4336Punt0–0
CINQ1 5:59414Punt0–0
PITQ1 3:4536Opp touchdown7–0
PITQ1 2:151479Missed field goal7–0
CINQ2 9:14524Punt7–0
PITQ2 5:4937Punt7–0
CINQ2 3:52524Field goal10–0
PITQ2 1:53273Touchdown10–7
CINQ2 1:0935Punt10–7
PITQ2 0:1000End of half10–7
CINQ3 15:0010Turnover10–7
PITQ3 14:513-5Punt10–7
CINQ3 13:161156Turnover on downs10–7
PITQ3 9:08945Field goal10–10
CINQ3 4:0130Punt10–10
PITQ3 3:0636Punt10–10
CINQ3 1:14531Turnover10–10
PITQ4 14:443-9Punt10–10
CINQ4 13:23510Turnover10–10
PITQ4 11:14714Punt10–10
CINQ4 8:05952Missed field goal10–10
PITQ4 3:18518Missed field goal10–10
CINQ4 1:4739Punt10–10
PITQ4 0:44313Turnover10–10
CINQ4 0:14121Field goal13–10
PITQ4 0:04119Turnover13–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton24/4127802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis15140.90
Marvin Jones100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green10181160
Marvin Jones57650
Jermaine Gresham34380
Andrew Hawkins37300
Brandon Tate11230
Ryan Whalen1260
BenJarvus Green-Ellis1100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger14/2822012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall11504.50
Jonathan Dwyer14392.80
Isaac Redman341.30
Ben Roethlisberger231.50
Mike Wallace1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown56971
Heath Miller39450
Isaac Redman22320
Jerricho Cotchery22200
Mike Wallace15130
Emmanuel Sanders11130
Chris Rainey0200
David Paulson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.81