Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play-0.007
- 41.6%Success rate42.0%
- +0.019EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.168
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.17CPOE+0.59
- 34.3%Third-down rate41.9%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
- 1.71Points / drive1.66
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 24/41 | 278 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 15 | 14 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 10 | 18 | 116 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Ryan Whalen | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 14/28 | 220 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 6 | 97 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.81