2012 · Week 16 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
-2.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play-0.073
- 46.7%Success rate42.7%
- +0.233EPA / dropback-0.006
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.208
- 12.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +4.84CPOE+0.51
- 35.5%Third-down rate37.1%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 2.11Points / drive1.18
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 16/24 | 198 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 22 | 91 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 9 | 89 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 32/48 | 345 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 8 | 14 | 116 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 9 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 8 | 12 | 70 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.6%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.24
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-2.81