2012 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

27·20

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

WAS -3.5

Total

46

Model margin

-2.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • +0.137EPA / play-0.073
  • 46.7%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.233EPA / dropback-0.006
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.208
  • 12.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +4.84CPOE+0.51
  • 35.5%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.18
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001176Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 10:091056Turnover on downs0–7
PHIQ1 4:38934Turnover0–7
WASQ2 15:00732Field goal3–7
PHIQ2 11:2530Punt3–7
WASQ2 9:39429Field goal6–7
PHIQ2 7:373-2Turnover6–7
WASQ2 6:15525Touchdown13–7
PHIQ2 3:301275Field goal13–10
WASQ2 0:1800End of half13–10
WASQ3 15:00572Touchdown20–10
PHIQ3 12:33768Field goal20–13
WASQ3 8:013-4Punt20–13
PHIQ3 6:0245Turnover on downs20–13
WASQ3 4:32750Touchdown27–13
PHIQ3 1:31514Punt27–13
WASQ4 14:32517Turnover27–13
PHIQ4 11:27661Touchdown27–20
WASQ4 8:55637Punt27–20
PHIQ4 4:151680End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III16/2419821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris22914.11
Evan Royster2147.00
Santana Moss11212.00
Josh Morgan177.00
Robert Griffin III242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon79890
Santana Moss23261
Josh Morgan25211
Niles Paul12210
Alfred Morris11170
Leonard Hankerson12100
Chris Cooley1180
Logan Paulsen1160

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles32/4834511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy13453.50
Bryce Brown4184.50
Dion Lewis11717.01
Nick Foles4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin8141161
LeSean McCoy911770
Jason Avant812700
Brent Celek33390
Damaris Johnson33250
Riley Cooper12180
Evan Moore0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.6%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.24
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-2.81