Closing spread
NO -4
Total
53.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.094
- 44.9%Success rate47.2%
- +0.158EPA / dropback+0.160
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.039
- 11.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.55CPOE+0.89
- 42.2%Third-down rate43.1%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 1.90Points / drive2.17
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/33 | 248 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Anderson | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 21 | 210 | 10.0 | 2 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 3 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 3 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Richie Brockel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/43 | 396 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Moore | 4 | 6 | 121 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 9 | 16 | 115 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 8 | 9 | 79 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 8 | 52 | 2 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77