2012 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

44·38

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -4

Total

53.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.094
  • 44.9%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.158EPA / dropback+0.160
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.039
  • 11.0%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.55CPOE+0.89
  • 42.2%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
  • 1.90Points / drive2.17
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
CARQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NOQ1 14:04419Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:471476Field goal3–0
NOQ1 5:41941Punt3–0
CARQ1 2:101261Missed field goal3–0
NOQ2 11:494-2Punt3–0
CARQ2 9:30382Touchdown10–0
NOQ2 8:18776Touchdown10–7
CARQ2 5:1424Opp touchdown10–14
CARQ2 4:31860Field goal13–14
NOQ2 0:39447Field goal13–17
NOQ3 15:00880Touchdown13–24
CARQ3 10:45591Touchdown20–24
NOQ3 8:4839Punt20–24
CARQ3 7:22616Punt20–24
NOQ3 4:2822Turnover20–24
CARQ3 3:47336Touchdown27–24
NOQ3 2:29523Punt27–24
CARQ4 14:521060Touchdown34–24
NOQ4 10:1630Punt40–24
CARQ4 8:29112Touchdown41–24
NOQ4 8:231081Touchdown41–31
CARQ4 5:1035Field goal44–31
NOQ4 4:08565Touchdown44–38
CARQ4 2:52524End of half44–38

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton16/3324801
Derek Anderson1/11200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams2121010.02
Cam Newton7344.90
Brandon LaFell144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith39730
Brandon LaFell57620
Louis Murphy37570
Greg Olsen45430
DeAngelo Williams1230
Richie Brockel0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/4339641

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram10393.90
Chris Ivory4225.50
Darren Sproles310.30
Joseph Morgan111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lance Moore461210
Jimmy Graham9161151
Darren Sproles89791
Marques Colston58522
Devery Henderson11160
Joseph Morgan1180
Mark Ingram0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

48.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.77