2012 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

26·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

46

Model margin

+0.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.041EPA / play-0.004
  • 39.6%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.056
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.131
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -0.76CPOE-2.29
  • 36.4%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.65
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
DETQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:14450Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:51865Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 5:54380Touchdown7–3
DETQ1 4:3300Field goal7–3
CHIQ1 4:2639Field goal10–3
DETQ1 2:59727Punt10–3
CHIQ2 13:45926Punt10–3
DETQ2 9:3043Punt10–3
CHIQ2 7:29528Missed field goal10–3
DETQ2 4:142-17Turnover10–3
CHIQ2 4:0147Touchdown17–3
DETQ2 3:2625Turnover17–3
CHIQ2 2:3831Field goal20–3
DETQ2 1:491180Touchdown20–10
CHIQ2 0:1212End of half20–10
CHIQ3 15:00841Punt20–10
DETQ3 10:24980Touchdown20–17
CHIQ3 6:31421Punt20–17
DETQ3 3:4424Turnover20–17
CHIQ3 2:5533Field goal23–17
DETQ3 1:4935Punt23–17
CHIQ3 0:121059Field goal26–17
DETQ4 10:47965Touchdown26–24
CHIQ4 6:55425Punt26–24
DETQ4 4:3734Punt26–24
CHIQ4 3:40539End of half26–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler18/3125710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte241034.31
Jay Cutler5295.80
Kahlil Bell4123.00
Devin Hester122.00
Brandon Marshall1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Earl Bennett551091
Alshon Jeffery47760
Brandon Marshall514420
Matt Forte22210
Matt Spaeth1170
Evan Rodriguez1120
Kellen Davis0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/4227231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mikel Leshoure15573.80
Matthew Stafford393.00
Joique Bell263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson514720
Tony Scheffler57530
Brian Robiskie22301
Will Heller22291
Kris Durham12251
Mikel Leshoure35200
Joique Bell22190
Brandon Pettigrew23110
Mike Thomas1270
Shaun Chapas1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.38