Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
46
Model margin
+0.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play-0.004
- 39.6%Success rate45.2%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.056
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.131
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.76CPOE-2.29
- 36.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 1.47Points / drive1.65
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 18/31 | 257 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 24 | 103 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Bennett | 5 | 5 | 109 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 14 | 42 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Evan Rodriguez | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/42 | 272 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Leshoure | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 14 | 72 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Will Heller | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Kris Durham | 1 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Shaun Chapas | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.38