2012 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
49
Model margin
+5.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.137
- 47.2%Success rate46.7%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.233
- -0.133EPA / rush+0.030
- 7.3%Explosive rate12.8%
- +3.18CPOE+4.84
- 43.3%Third-down rate35.5%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 1.79Points / drive2.11
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 20/37 | 218 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 2 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 9/18 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 33 | 200 | 6.1 | 3 |
| Robert Griffin III | 6 | 63 | 10.5 | 1 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
48.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.23