2012 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

18·28

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

49

Model margin

+5.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.137
  • 47.2%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.233
  • -0.133EPA / rush+0.030
  • 7.3%Explosive rate12.8%
  • +3.18CPOE+4.84
  • 43.3%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.11
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
WASQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:0932Turnover0–0
WASQ1 12:17852Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 6:59524Turnover0–0
WASQ1 5:021042Punt0–0
DALQ1 0:361389Touchdown7–0
WASQ2 7:59868Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 3:28843Punt7–7
WASQ2 0:3813End of half7–7
DALQ3 15:00731Punt7–7
WASQ3 11:1538Punt7–7
DALQ3 9:3633Punt7–7
WASQ3 8:24982Touchdown7–14
DALQ3 3:10944Field goal10–14
WASQ4 14:09674Touchdown10–21
DALQ4 10:32514Punt10–21
WASQ4 8:3937Punt10–21
DALQ4 6:35316Touchdown18–21
WASQ4 5:5044Punt18–21
DALQ4 3:33214Turnover18–21
WASQ4 3:00719Touchdown18–28
DALQ4 1:09316End of half18–28

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo20/3721823

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray17764.50
Felix Jones5244.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant48710
Jason Witten78561
Kevin Ogletree24251
Dwayne Harris14250
James Hanna34200
DeMarco Murray24100
Miles Austin0300
Cole Beasley0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III9/1810000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris332006.13
Robert Griffin III66310.51
Evan Royster294.50
Santana Moss122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon35460
Santana Moss24220
Leonard Hankerson11120
Alfred Morris22120
Logan Paulsen1180
Josh Morgan0400
Niles Paul0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

48.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.23