Closing spread
TEN -6
Total
42
Model margin
+3.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.115EPA / play-0.093
- 40.0%Success rate38.0%
- -0.106EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.166
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- -5.09CPOE-2.87
- 28.8%Third-down rate38.2%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 0.96Points / drive1.29
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 25/41 | 298 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Toston | 17 | 74 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Richard Murphy | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 7 | 10 | 103 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 6 | 13 | 79 | 1 |
| Jordan Shipley | 7 | 9 | 51 | 1 |
| Keith Toston | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Toney Clemons | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 9/15 | 152 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 21 | 56 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Collin Mooney | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavelle Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.46