2012 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

20·38

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TEN -6

Total

42

Model margin

+3.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • -0.115EPA / play-0.093
  • 40.0%Success rate38.0%
  • -0.106EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.166
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -5.09CPOE-2.87
  • 28.8%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 0.96Points / drive1.29
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
TENQ1 15:00779Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 11:341081Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 5:4030Punt7–7
JAXQ1 4:00766Touchdown14–7
TENQ2 14:5347Punt14–7
JAXQ2 13:19622Punt14–7
TENQ2 10:30524Punt14–7
JAXQ2 7:39731Punt14–7
TENQ2 4:213-8Punt14–7
JAXQ2 3:04430Opp touchdown14–14
JAXQ2 1:48416Opp touchdown14–21
JAXQ2 0:33634Turnover on downs14–21
JAXQ3 15:0037Opp touchdown14–28
JAXQ3 12:5423Opp touchdown14–35
JAXQ3 12:0335Turnover14–35
TENQ3 10:2547Turnover on downs14–35
JAXQ3 8:281154Turnover on downs14–35
TENQ3 4:001241Field goal14–38
JAXQ4 12:2644Punt14–38
TENQ4 10:25749Turnover on downs14–38
JAXQ4 6:43622Turnover on downs14–38
TENQ4 4:3838Opp touchdown20–38
TENQ4 2:16614End of half20–38

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne25/4129823

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Keith Toston17744.40
Richard Murphy3248.00
Chad Henne2136.50
Justin Blackmon11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcedes Lewis7101030
Justin Blackmon613791
Jordan Shipley79511
Keith Toston34410
Toney Clemons24240
Mike Brown0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker9/1515200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson21562.71
Collin Mooney5193.80
Jake Locker530.60
Darius Reynaud310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lavelle Hawkins11420
Kendall Wright23400
Nate Washington12210
Kenny Britt25210
Taylor Thompson23190
Chris Johnson1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.46