Closing spread
SD -9.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutCarson PalmerQBRibs· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutPhillip AdamsCBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableMike BrisielGConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableTyvon BranchSNeck· Limited
- DNPMike GoodsonRBIllness
- DNPRichard SeymourDTKnee
- ProbableDavid AusberryTEKnee· Limited
- ProbableKhalif BarnesTTriceps· Limited
- ProbableMiles BurrisLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableBrandon MyersTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableJack CrawfordDEToe· Full
- ProbableJuron CrinerWRHip· Full
Chargers
- DoubtfulDonald ButlerLBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableRonnie BrownRBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableDemorrio WilliamsLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableShareece WrightCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableTakeo SpikesLBHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 14:48 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 12:38 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 10:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:31 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 4:11 | 14 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 12:11 | 15 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LV | Q2 2:48 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q2 1:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LV | Q2 0:47 | 4 | 10 | End of half | 7–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 37 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q3 10:21 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LV | Q3 8:42 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q3 7:10 | 4 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LV | Q3 4:59 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LAC | Q3 2:08 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LV | Q4 13:02 | 10 | 91 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| LAC | Q4 7:43 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LV | Q4 4:18 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LAC | Q4 3:16 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LV | Q4 2:45 | 3 | 15 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| LAC | Q4 1:52 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 21–24 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.