Closing spread
NYG -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.086
- 42.7%Success rate46.8%
- -0.006EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.000
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.8%
- +0.51CPOE+0.81
- 37.1%Third-down rate41.8%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.18Points / drive2.27
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 19/35 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
| Trent Edwards | 2/2 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 9 | 22 | 1 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 13/21 | 208 | 5 | 0 |
| David Carr | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 16 | 107 | 6.7 | 1 |
| David Wilson | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 4 | 4 | 58 | 2 |
| Victor Cruz | 4 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Domenik Hixon | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.29