2012 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

7·42

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 32°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NYG -6.5

Total

44

Model margin

+5.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.086
  • 42.7%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.006EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.000
  • 8.8%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +0.51CPOE+0.81
  • 37.1%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 1.18Points / drive2.27
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0000Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 14:58514Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 12:37426Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 10:36413Punt0–7
NYGQ1 9:07574Touchdown0–14
PHIQ1 6:2435Punt0–14
NYGQ1 4:28675Touchdown0–21
PHIQ1 1:181180Touchdown7–21
NYGQ2 12:061262Touchdown7–28
PHIQ2 6:261165Missed field goal7–28
NYGQ2 1:48515Punt7–28
PHIQ2 0:52640Turnover on downs7–28
NYGQ2 0:17254Touchdown7–35
PHIQ2 0:0400End of half7–35
PHIQ3 15:00828Punt7–35
NYGQ3 10:30717Punt7–35
PHIQ3 7:041253Punt7–35
NYGQ3 1:151662Touchdown7–42
PHIQ4 6:51619Turnover on downs7–42
NYGQ4 4:00315End of half7–42

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick19/3519711
Trent Edwards2/21400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy10454.50
Mike Vick5255.00
Bryce Brown8182.30
Dion Lewis3155.00
Damaris Johnson177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LeSean McCoy56610
Brent Celek35430
Jason Avant45390
Riley Cooper37320
Jeremy Maclin49221
Damaris Johnson1480
Bryce Brown1160

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning13/2120850
David Carr1/11500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw161076.71
David Wilson15755.00
Jerrel Jernigan166.00
David Carr3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rueben Randle44582
Victor Cruz46521
Domenik Hixon23410
Ahmad Bradshaw12410
Martellus Bennett15150
David Wilson11151

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.29