Closing spread
SEA -11
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/19 | 250 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 100 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 3 | 4 | 105 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 1 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.