Closing spread
SEA -11
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- ProbableAustin PettisWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableCortland FinneganCBThigh· Full
- ProbableCraig DahlSKnee· Full
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBBack· Full
- ProbableScott WellsCKnee· Full
- ProbableSteven JacksonRBFoot· Full
Seahawks
- OutWalter ThurmondCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableBreno GiacominiTElbow· Full
- QuestionableLeRoy HillLBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableAnthony McCoyTEBack· Full
- ProbableEarl ThomasSAnkle· Full
- ProbableGolden TateWRIllness· Full
- ProbableMarcus TrufantCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableMarshawn LynchRBBack· Full
- ProbableRed BryantDEFoot· Full
- ProbableSidney RiceWRKnee· Full
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:34 | 9 | 48 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 4:45 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:31 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q2 13:19 | 4 | 22 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 10:40 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q2 6:03 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 3:24 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q2 2:58 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 1:08 | 6 | 47 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 50 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| LA | Q3 10:41 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| SEA | Q3 5:31 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LA | Q3 2:09 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| LA | Q3 2:09 | 4 | 27 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| LA | Q4 15:00 | 6 | 35 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| SEA | Q4 11:23 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LA | Q4 7:32 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 13–13 |
| SEA | Q4 5:11 | 10 | 86 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| LA | Q4 1:39 | 10 | 26 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| SEA | Q4 0:33 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/19 | 250 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 100 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 3 | 4 | 105 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 1 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.25
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.