2011 · Week 12

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

23·17

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Tarvaris Jackson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

37

Model margin

+4.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.058EPA / play-0.069
  • 41.9%Success rate38.9%
  • -0.048EPA / dropback-0.035
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.12CPOE+0.03
  • 36.9%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 47.2%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.31
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. SEA are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3SEA @ WAS31–33WAS
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–SEA
WASQ1 15:001595Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 7:11518Punt7–0
WASQ1 5:13977Punt7–0
SEAQ1 0:39832Punt7–0
WASQ2 11:5921Turnover7–6
SEAQ2 11:08120Touchdown7–7
WASQ2 11:011160Missed field goal7–7
SEAQ2 5:171250Punt7–7
WASQ2 0:4412End of half7–7
SEAQ3 15:00624Missed field goal7–7
WASQ3 12:0310Turnover7–7
SEAQ3 11:5334Punt7–7
WASQ3 10:42622Punt7–7
SEAQ3 7:3543Field goal7–10
WASQ3 5:58610Punt7–10
SEAQ3 3:281288Touchdown7–17
WASQ4 12:45670Touchdown14–17
SEAQ4 9:513-5Punt14–17
WASQ4 7:55468Touchdown20–17
SEAQ4 6:18414Punt20–17
WASQ4 4:1637Punt20–17
SEAQ4 2:3451Turnover on downs20–17
WASQ4 2:0737Field goal23–17
SEAQ4 1:0631Turnover23–17
WASQ4 0:3700End of half23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman26/3531422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Roy Helu231084.71
Evan Royster133.00
Rex Grossman5-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jabar Gaffney57720
Fred Davis44581
Roy Helu77540
Anthony Armstrong11501
Santana Moss47290
Mike Sellers11150
Logan Paulsen22140
Donte' Stallworth0200
Terrence Austin0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson14/3014421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch241114.60
Leon Washington492.30
Sidney Rice133.00
Justin Forsett111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin510600
Ben Obomanu34260
Marshawn Lynch13201
Golden Tate13151
Anthony McCoy11130
Zach Miller1220
Justin Forsett1110
Mike Williams0300
Sidney Rice0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.22