2011 · Week 12
Final
CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
37
Model margin
+4.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play-0.069
- 41.9%Success rate38.9%
- -0.048EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.12CPOE+0.03
- 36.9%Third-down rate33.6%
- 47.2%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.48Points / drive1.31
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. SEA are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 26/35 | 314 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Helu | 23 | 108 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Evan Royster | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 5 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 4 | 4 | 58 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 7 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 1 | 1 | 50 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrence Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 14/30 | 144 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 24 | 111 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Anthony McCoy | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.22