Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. STL are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 26/40 | 327 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 8 | 9 | 97 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 4 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 14 | 80 | 2 |
| Jim Dray | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Kory Sperry | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.41
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.