Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- OutRob HouslerTEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableCalais CampbellDEQuadricep· DNP
- ProbableAndre RobertsWRQuadricep· Limited
- ProbableAndre EllingtonRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableD.C. JeffersonTEKnee· Full
- ProbableDan WilliamsDTAnkle· Full
- ProbableJavier ArenasCBHip· Full
- ProbableMike LeachLSHamstring· Full
- ProbableRashard MendenhallRBKnee· Full
Rams
- OutCory HarkeyTEKnee· DNP
- OutDarian StewartSThigh· DNP
- OutJonathan StewartLBHip· DNP
- OutQuinton PointerCBThigh· DNP
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 42 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:26 | 10 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:46 | 6 | 80 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 2:30 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:11 | 7 | 18 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q2 11:20 | 12 | 67 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 5:23 | 13 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q2 0:26 | 4 | 48 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| LA | Q3 14:47 | 3 | -3 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| ARI | Q3 13:57 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LA | Q3 11:35 | 3 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 17–13 |
| LA | Q3 10:34 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 17–13 |
| ARI | Q3 7:03 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 24–13 |
| LA | Q3 1:47 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| ARI | Q4 12:56 | 5 | 10 | Turnover | 24–21 |
| LA | Q4 10:38 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| ARI | Q4 9:04 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LA | Q4 5:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–24 |
| ARI | Q4 3:10 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LA | Q4 1:45 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 24–27 |
| ARI | Q4 0:40 | 3 | 23 | End of half | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 26/40 | 327 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 8 | 9 | 97 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 4 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 14 | 80 | 2 |
| Jim Dray | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Kory Sperry | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.41
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.