Closing spread
SF -5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play+0.034
- 45.4%Success rate41.8%
- +0.115EPA / dropback+0.156
- +0.003EPA / rush-0.110
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.6%
- +2.82CPOE-1.63
- 40.8%Third-down rate37.8%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.19Points / drive1.99
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/37 | 333 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 7 | 10 | 130 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 12 | 108 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 5 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| James Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 27/39 | 412 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 44 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 13 | 17 | 208 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 6 | 9 | 98 | 2 |
| Kyle Williams | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.84