2013 · Week 1

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

28·34

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge map49ers
  • +0.072EPA / play+0.034
  • 45.4%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback+0.156
  • +0.003EPA / rush-0.110
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +2.82CPOE-1.63
  • 40.8%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.99
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12SF @ GB10–38GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2021 · W3GB @ SF30–28GB
2020 · W9GB @ SF34–17GB
2019 · playoffsGB @ SF20–37SF
2019 · W12GB @ SF8–37SF
2018 · W6SF @ GB30–33GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–SF
GBQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:2038Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:42627Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:511383Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 2:52680Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 1:05637Punt7–7
GBQ2 11:5723Turnover7–7
SFQ2 11:15519Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 8:5738Punt7–14
SFQ2 8:013-2Punt7–14
GBQ2 6:39533Turnover7–14
SFQ2 4:28526Missed field goal7–14
GBQ2 1:321052Touchdown14–14
SFQ2 0:16214End of half14–14
SFQ3 15:00985Touchdown14–21
GBQ3 9:4635Punt14–21
SFQ3 7:4135Punt14–21
GBQ3 6:37754Touchdown21–21
SFQ3 3:49976Field goal21–24
GBQ4 14:1730Punt21–24
SFQ4 12:59413Punt21–24
GBQ4 10:56876Touchdown28–24
SFQ4 8:26580Touchdown28–31
GBQ4 5:4737Punt28–31
SFQ4 4:521050Field goal28–34
GBQ4 0:26238End of half28–34

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3733331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy14412.91
Aaron Rodgers2136.50
Randall Cobb263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson7101301
Randall Cobb7121081
Jermichael Finley58561
Eddie Lacy12310
James Starks1180
James Jones0200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick27/3941230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore21442.11
Kendall Hunter6244.00
Colin Kaepernick7223.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin13172081
Vernon Davis69982
Kyle Williams36360
Vance McDonald12250
Frank Gore22210
Marlon Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.84