Closing spread
DET -4
Total
46
Model margin
+4.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.004
- 41.4%Success rate43.1%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.002EPA / rush-0.142
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- -2.09CPOE-3.33
- 36.4%Third-down rate42.9%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
- 1.75Points / drive1.75
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 18/28 | 236 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Christian Ponder | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 7 | 8 | 140 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/43 | 357 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | -3 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 8 | 101 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Pat Edwards | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 3 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Kris Durham | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.96
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.63