2013 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

24·34

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -4

Total

46

Model margin

+4.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.004
  • 41.4%Success rate43.1%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.002EPA / rush-0.142
  • 10.2%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -2.09CPOE-3.33
  • 36.4%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.75
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:001067Turnover on downs6–0
MINQ1 10:52178Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 10:39960Field goal7–3
MINQ1 4:5531Punt7–3
DETQ1 2:55735Field goal7–6
MINQ2 14:4729Turnover7–6
DETQ2 14:0110Turnover7–6
MINQ2 13:53465Touchdown14–6
DETQ2 12:1739Punt14–6
MINQ2 10:4435Punt14–6
DETQ2 9:11516Punt14–6
MINQ2 6:1735Punt14–6
DETQ2 4:0937Turnover14–6
MINQ2 2:50312Turnover14–6
DETQ2 2:14875Touchdown14–13
MINQ2 0:1000End of half14–13
MINQ3 15:003-6Punt14–13
DETQ3 13:03750Touchdown14–20
MINQ3 10:19641Field goal17–20
DETQ3 6:42380Touchdown17–27
MINQ3 5:45973Touchdown24–27
DETQ3 1:37729Punt24–27
MINQ4 12:48316Turnover24–27
DETQ4 11:231122Touchdown24–34
MINQ4 6:4730Punt24–34
DETQ4 6:12523Punt24–34
MINQ4 4:171132Turnover24–34
DETQ4 1:2000End of half24–34

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder18/2823613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson18935.22
Christian Ponder4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Simpson781400
Greg Jennings37330
Kyle Rudolph24270
Adrian Peterson44181
Cordarrelle Patterson11100
John Carlson0100
Jarius Wright0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/4335721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush21904.30
Joique Bell6254.22
Matthew Stafford6-3-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Bush481011
Nate Burleson66780
Joique Bell56670
Calvin Johnson49370
Pat Edwards33300
Joseph Fauria33271
Kris Durham12110
Brandon Pettigrew2460
Tony Scheffler0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.96
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.63