2013 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

31·36

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.142EPA / play+0.062
  • 40.2%Success rate47.2%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.235EPA / rush+0.011
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -3.07CPOE+0.26
  • 32.2%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.06Points / drive2.21
  • 4.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
NYGQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
DALQ1 14:5338Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 13:04572Turnover0–3
DALQ1 11:3335Punt0–3
NYGQ1 10:14413Turnover0–3
DALQ1 8:501049Turnover0–3
NYGQ1 4:003-1Field goal3–3
DALQ1 2:021360Field goal3–6
NYGQ2 10:02411Punt3–6
DALQ2 7:52976Touchdown3–13
NYGQ2 2:55385Touchdown10–13
DALQ2 1:50835Punt10–13
NYGQ2 0:1400End of half10–13
DALQ3 15:0033Punt10–13
NYGQ3 13:132-2Opp touchdown10–20
NYGQ3 12:31627Punt10–20
DALQ3 8:38733Punt10–20
DALQ3 5:44216Touchdown10–27
NYGQ3 4:55880Touchdown17–27
DALQ3 1:44738Field goal17–30
NYGQ4 12:10790Touchdown24–30
DALQ4 8:476-11Punt24–30
NYGQ4 5:493-7Punt24–30
DALQ4 5:07420Punt24–30
NYGQ4 2:41431Opp touchdown24–36
NYGQ4 1:50980Touchdown31–36
DALQ4 0:1100End of half31–36

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning27/4245043

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Da'Rel Scott5234.60
David Wilson7192.70
Eli Manning284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz581183
Hakeem Nicks581140
Rueben Randle561010
Brandon Myers79661
Da'Rel Scott58510
David Wilson0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo36/4926321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray20864.30
Phillip Tanner122.00
Tony Romo2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin1012720
Jason Witten89702
DeMarco Murray810390
Terrance Williams24320
Dez Bryant48220
Dwayne Harris23120
Phillip Tanner1190
Gavin Escobar1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.44