Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.142EPA / play+0.062
- 40.2%Success rate47.2%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.235EPA / rush+0.011
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- -3.07CPOE+0.26
- 32.2%Third-down rate35.6%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.06Points / drive2.21
- 4.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 27/42 | 450 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Da'Rel Scott | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 8 | 118 | 3 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 5 | 8 | 114 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 5 | 6 | 101 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 7 | 9 | 66 | 1 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 36/49 | 263 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 10 | 12 | 72 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 8 | 9 | 70 | 2 |
| DeMarco Murray | 8 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.44