2013 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

33·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

WAS -4

Total

51

Model margin

+4.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.058
  • 46.4%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.065
  • 13.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.43CPOE-3.92
  • 39.3%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 56.7%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.37
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
PHIQ1 15:001070Opp touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 11:54851Field goal3–7
WASQ1 9:1513Turnover9–7
PHIQ1 9:07125Touchdown10–7
WASQ1 8:5946Turnover10–7
PHIQ1 7:20519Punt10–7
WASQ1 5:0120Safety12–7
PHIQ1 4:50731Punt12–7
WASQ1 2:00626Punt12–7
PHIQ2 13:46925Punt12–7
WASQ2 9:48411Punt12–7
PHIQ2 8:17657Touchdown19–7
WASQ2 6:1031Punt19–7
PHIQ2 4:11944Touchdown26–7
WASQ2 0:58328End of half26–7
WASQ3 15:0049Turnover26–7
PHIQ3 14:00230Touchdown33–7
WASQ3 13:261457Missed field goal33–7
PHIQ3 6:2559Punt33–7
WASQ3 3:36966Touchdown33–14
PHIQ3 0:06414Turnover33–14
WASQ4 13:46429Touchdown33–20
PHIQ4 12:24648Punt33–20
WASQ4 9:081157Turnover on downs33–20
PHIQ4 6:48621Punt33–20
WASQ4 3:42989Touchdown33–27
PHIQ4 1:1400End of half33–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick15/2520320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy311845.91
Mike Vick9546.01
Bryce Brown9252.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson791041
Brent Celek23561
Riley Cooper26140
Jason Avant23130
Zach Ertz13110
LeSean McCoy1150

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III30/4932922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris12453.81
Robert Griffin III5244.80
Roy Helu155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Leonard Hankerson57802
Pierre Garcon711640
Santana Moss59540
Josh Morgan45510
Jordan Reed56380
Fred Davis24220
Roy Helu12110
Alfred Morris1190
Aldrick Robinson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.10
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.88