2013 · Week 1 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
WAS -4
Total
51
Model margin
+4.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.058
- 46.4%Success rate42.2%
- +0.181EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.065
- 13.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.43CPOE-3.92
- 39.3%Third-down rate40.7%
- 56.7%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.91Points / drive1.37
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 15/25 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 31 | 184 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 7 | 9 | 104 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 30/49 | 329 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Hankerson | 5 | 7 | 80 | 2 |
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.10
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.88