Closing spread
DET -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.020
- 43.1%Success rate41.6%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.109
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -3.33CPOE+3.74
- 42.9%Third-down rate35.3%
- 73.4%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.75Points / drive1.71
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/36 | 278 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 8 | 116 | 2 |
| Nate Burleson | 7 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 22/39 | 248 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Kerry Taylor | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 3 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.61