2013 · Week 2

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

21·25

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DET -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.020
  • 43.1%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.109
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -3.33CPOE+3.74
  • 42.9%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 73.4%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.71
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. ARI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ARI
DETQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:41526Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:291260Missed field goal0–0
ARIQ1 3:28530Punt0–0
DETQ1 0:383-2Punt0–0
ARIQ2 14:24428Field goal0–3
DETQ2 11:44380Touchdown7–3
ARIQ2 10:20680Touchdown7–10
DETQ2 7:321182Touchdown14–10
ARIQ2 1:55424Punt14–10
DETQ2 0:532-1End of half14–10
ARIQ3 15:00516Punt14–10
DETQ3 12:4327Turnover14–10
ARIQ3 11:5437Field goal14–13
DETQ3 10:3230Punt14–13
ARIQ3 10:11634Opp touchdown21–13
ARIQ3 7:04727Field goal21–16
DETQ3 4:1336Punt21–16
ARIQ3 2:38939Field goal21–19
DETQ4 14:17851Missed field goal21–19
ARIQ4 8:4369Punt21–19
DETQ4 5:3230Punt21–19
ARIQ4 4:28830Touchdown21–25
DETQ4 1:59526Turnover on downs21–25
ARIQ4 1:0900End of half21–25

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3627820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell8313.90
Reggie Bush9252.80
Matthew Stafford210.50
Nate Burleson1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson681162
Nate Burleson78450
Reggie Bush33440
Joique Bell58410
Brandon Pettigrew36320
Kris Durham0200
Theo Riddick0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer22/3924811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall15664.41
Andre Ellington4205.00
Stepfan Taylor122.00
Alfonso Smith310.30
Carson Palmer2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Ellington22421
Kerry Taylor34400
Andre Roberts38360
Larry Fitzgerald25330
Jim Dray57310
Rashard Mendenhall22280
Michael Floyd37220
Jaron Brown12110
Alfonso Smith1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.61