Closing spread
CHI -6
Total
41
Model margin
+4.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.077
- 41.4%Success rate45.2%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.002EPA / rush-0.072
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.9%
- -2.09CPOE+4.85
- 36.4%Third-down rate42.7%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.75Points / drive1.95
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 16/30 | 227 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 26 | 100 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Christian Ponder | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 2 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 27/38 | 292 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 10 | 113 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 7 | 9 | 76 | 2 |
| Matt Forte | 10 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Steve Maneri | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.96
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.38