2013 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

30·31

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CHI -6

Total

41

Model margin

+4.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.077
  • 41.4%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.002EPA / rush-0.072
  • 10.2%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -2.09CPOE+4.85
  • 36.4%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.95
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
MINQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 14:47532Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 12:12619Punt7–7
CHIQ1 10:09825Punt7–7
MINQ1 5:13610Punt7–7
CHIQ1 2:10386Touchdown7–14
MINQ1 1:04634Punt7–14
CHIQ2 13:231041Opp touchdown14–14
CHIQ2 7:34522Turnover14–14
MINQ2 4:28411Opp touchdown14–21
MINQ2 2:51675Touchdown21–21
CHIQ2 1:11863Field goal21–24
CHIQ3 15:00420Punt21–24
MINQ3 12:30513Turnover21–24
CHIQ3 10:1531Punt21–24
MINQ3 8:171281Field goal24–24
CHIQ3 2:32633Turnover24–24
MINQ4 14:541264Field goal27–24
CHIQ4 8:05313Turnover27–24
MINQ4 6:28743Field goal30–24
CHIQ4 3:151076Touchdown30–31
MINQ4 0:1000Turnover30–31
CHIQ4 0:0300Turnover30–31

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder16/3022711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson261003.80
Christian Ponder6183.00
Toby Gerhart155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings56840
Jerome Simpson25490
Kyle Rudolph36421
Jarius Wright12210
Cordarrelle Patterson22140
Adrian Peterson1270
John Carlson1270
Toby Gerhart1230

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler27/3829232

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte20884.40
Alshon Jeffery23015.00
Jay Cutler393.00
Michael Bush200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall7101131
Martellus Bennett79762
Matt Forte1010730
Earl Bennett22190
Alshon Jeffery15110
Steve Maneri0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.96
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.38