Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
40
Model margin
+4.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Steelers
- OutCortez AllenCBAnkle· DNP
- OutHeath MillerTEKnee· Limited
- OutLe'Veon BellRBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulCurtis BrownCBIllness· Limited
- ProbableShaun SuishamKLeft Hamstring· Full
- ProbableSteve McLendonDTHamstring· Full
Bengals
- OutBrandon GheeCBConcussion· DNP
- OutMike PollakGKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulJeromy MilesSHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableAndrew WhitworthTKnee· Limited
- ProbableVontaze BurfictLBThigh· Full
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.031
- 42.4%Success rate43.4%
- +0.096EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.173EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- +3.30CPOE+1.24
- 37.6%Third-down rate41.9%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
- 1.82Points / drive1.76
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 13:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 12:08 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q1 10:42 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 6:57 | 8 | 57 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| CIN | Q1 3:22 | 5 | 87 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q1 0:57 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CIN | Q1 0:01 | 7 | 40 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| PIT | Q2 13:16 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CIN | Q2 12:07 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 3–10 |
| PIT | Q2 9:13 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CIN | Q2 5:13 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–10 |
| PIT | Q2 4:13 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| CIN | Q2 1:54 | 11 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 10–10 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–10 |
| PIT | Q3 13:27 | 4 | -11 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CIN | Q3 11:16 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| PIT | Q3 6:08 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CIN | Q3 4:21 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 10–17 |
| PIT | Q3 0:11 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CIN | Q4 14:42 | 14 | 53 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| PIT | Q4 7:51 | 8 | 50 | Turnover | 10–20 |
| CIN | Q4 4:55 | 9 | 21 | Punt | 10–20 |
| PIT | Q4 1:43 | 6 | 64 | End of half | 10–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/37 | 251 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Derek Moye | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 25/45 | 280 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 22 | 75 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | 6 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 6 | 14 | 41 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.18