Closing spread
CIN -7
Total
40
Model margin
+4.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.031
- 42.4%Success rate43.4%
- +0.096EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.173EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- +3.30CPOE+1.24
- 37.6%Third-down rate41.9%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
- 1.82Points / drive1.76
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/37 | 251 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| David Paulson | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Derek Moye | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 25/45 | 280 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 22 | 75 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | 6 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 6 | 14 | 41 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.18