Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.059
- 41.8%Success rate44.6%
- +0.156EPA / dropback+0.190
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.101
- 10.6%Explosive rate10.9%
- -1.63CPOE+5.19
- 37.8%Third-down rate38.4%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 1.99Points / drive2.17
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 13/28 | 127 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 9 | 87 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Williams | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 8/19 | 142 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 28 | 98 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 1 | 51 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.65