2013 · Week 2 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

3·29

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.059
  • 41.8%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.156EPA / dropback+0.190
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.101
  • 10.6%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -1.63CPOE+5.19
  • 37.8%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.17
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SFQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:1134Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:21928Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 8:40523Turnover0–0
SFQ1 7:09425Punt0–0
SEAQ1 4:4640Punt0–0
SFQ1 3:133-5Punt0–0
SEAQ1 1:19948Punt0–0
SFQ2 11:232-2Safety0–2
SEAQ2 10:3949Turnover on downs0–2
SFQ2 8:303-11Turnover0–2
SEAQ2 8:07517Field goal0–5
SFQ2 5:52518Punt0–5
SEAQ2 3:27940Punt0–5
SEAQ3 15:001075Touchdown0–12
SFQ3 9:12876Field goal3–12
SEAQ3 4:201246Touchdown3–19
SFQ4 13:44214Turnover3–19
SEAQ4 13:0736Field goal3–22
SFQ4 11:311149Turnover on downs3–22
SEAQ4 7:56512Punt3–22
SFQ4 5:1336Turnover3–28
SEAQ4 4:2612Touchdown3–29
SFQ4 4:2200Turnover3–29
SEAQ4 4:15411Turnover3–29

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick13/2812703

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick9879.70
Frank Gore9161.80
Anthony Dixon144.00
Kendall Hunter1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Williams46390
Vernon Davis35200
Vance McDonald12190
Frank Gore13140
Anquan Boldin1470
Marlon Moore1160

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson8/1914211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch28983.52
Russell Wilson10333.30
Robert Turbin6315.20
Spencer Ware3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin11510
Marshawn Lynch33371
Zach Miller24220
Golden Tate12190
Sidney Rice15130
Robert Turbin0100
Luke Willson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.65