2013 · Week 2 · Division

Final / OT

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

24·30

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -7.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • +0.020EPA / play-0.109
  • 42.3%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.116
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.099
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +1.14CPOE-3.08
  • 41.0%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.07
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00580Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 12:301475Touchdown7–7
HOUQ1 5:10627Missed field goal7–7
TENQ1 1:54620Turnover on downs7–7
HOUQ2 14:5647Punt7–7
TENQ2 13:283-1Punt7–7
HOUQ2 11:56626Missed field goal7–7
TENQ2 9:22940Missed field goal7–7
HOUQ2 4:43519Punt7–7
TENQ2 2:1447Punt7–7
HOUQ2 1:3510Turnover7–7
TENQ2 1:253-6Field goal10–7
TENQ3 15:0038Punt10–7
HOUQ3 12:5633Punt10–7
TENQ3 11:1430Punt10–7
HOUQ3 9:46540Touchdown10–14
TENQ3 7:463-5Punt10–14
HOUQ3 6:16415Punt10–14
TENQ3 4:2837Punt10–14
HOUQ3 3:36631Punt10–14
TENQ3 0:084-2Safety10–16
HOUQ4 13:26416Punt10–16
TENQ4 10:45994Touchdown17–16
HOUQ4 6:374-11Opp touchdown24–16
HOUQ4 4:593-11Punt24–16
TENQ4 4:0832Punt24–16
HOUQ4 3:07887Touchdown24–24
TENQ4 1:5339Punt24–24
HOUQ4 0:57645Missed field goal24–24
HOUOT1178Touchdown24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker17/3014820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson25963.80
Jackie Battle6132.20
Jake Locker2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright711541
Nate Washington35500
Kenny Britt49280
Delanie Walker12101
Collin Mooney1150
Chris Johnson1110
Craig Stevens0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub26/4829832

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate99310.30
Arian Foster19794.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins7131171
Andre Johnson813760
Keshawn Martin22370
Garrett Graham35301
Owen Daniels25241
Ben Tate3480
Arian Foster1460
Lestar Jean0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.62
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.97