Closing spread
HOU -7.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play-0.109
- 42.3%Success rate40.7%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.116
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.099
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.14CPOE-3.08
- 41.0%Third-down rate36.4%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.79Points / drive1.07
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 17/30 | 148 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 25 | 96 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 7 | 11 | 54 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Collin Mooney | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 26/48 | 298 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 9 | 93 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 13 | 117 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 8 | 13 | 76 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 3 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.62
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.97