2013 · Week 3

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

9·30

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 73°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapRavens
  • -0.109EPA / play-0.096
  • 40.7%Success rate36.3%
  • -0.116EPA / dropback-0.003
  • -0.099EPA / rush-0.263
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.4%
  • -3.08CPOE-1.63
  • 36.4%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.33
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BAL
HOUQ1 15:001664Field goal3–0
BALQ1 7:0637Punt3–0
HOUQ1 5:4746Punt3–0
BALQ1 3:5733Punt3–0
HOUQ1 2:31513Field goal6–0
BALQ2 14:56814Punt6–0
HOUQ2 10:5446Punt6–0
BALQ2 9:031341Field goal6–3
HOUQ2 4:11315Opp touchdown6–10
HOUQ2 2:3942Opp touchdown6–17
HOUQ2 0:45451Field goal9–17
BALQ3 15:001073Touchdown9–24
HOUQ3 11:05629Punt9–24
BALQ3 7:48613Punt9–24
HOUQ3 4:04839Punt9–24
BALQ3 0:241259Field goal9–27
HOUQ4 9:09935Turnover on downs9–27
BALQ4 4:59826Field goal9–30
HOUQ4 1:0824End of half9–30

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub25/3519401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster12544.50
Ben Tate9364.00
Cierre Wood242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins67600
Andre Johnson56360
Keshawn Martin23350
Owen Daniels59290
DeVier Posey34290
Ben Tate3470
Arian Foster12-20

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco16/2417100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Pierce24652.71
Shaun Draughn420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith59920
Dallas Clark47460
Brandon Stokley1190
Bernard Pierce2270
Marlon Brown2360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.99