Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play-0.096
- 40.7%Success rate36.3%
- -0.116EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.263
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.4%
- -3.08CPOE-1.63
- 36.4%Third-down rate36.0%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.07Points / drive1.33
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 25/35 | 194 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cierre Wood | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 9 | 29 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/24 | 171 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Pierce | 24 | 65 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Shaun Draughn | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.99