Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play+0.097
- 39.5%Success rate45.7%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.192EPA / rush+0.042
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.6%
- 34.3%Third-down rate43.7%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.28Points / drive2.01
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 52 points. KC are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 33/48 | 369 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Lamar Gordon | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 19/30 | 221 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 18 | 84 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Larry Johnson | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.19