Closing spread
DAL -14
Total
43
Model margin
+2.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutBrian JacksonCBKnee· DNP
- OutC.J. Ah YouDEWrist· DNP
- QuestionableSam BradfordQBAnkle· DNP
- ProbableEugene SimsDEIllness· DNP
- DNPQuintin MikellSNot football related
Cowboys
- OutDerrick DockeryGKnee· DNP
- OutFelix JonesRBAnkle· DNP
- OutJason HatcherDECalf· DNP
- QuestionableDavid BuehlerKright Groin· Limited
- QuestionableDeMarcus WareLBBack· Limited
- QuestionableKyle KosierGFoot· Limited
- ProbableBarry ChurchSShoulder· Full
- ProbableTony FiammettaRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableTony RomoQBRibs· Full
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. DAL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:41 | 5 | 102 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 9:33 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 4:11 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:50 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 0:39 | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 12:25 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| DAL | Q2 7:58 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 5:04 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| DAL | Q2 3:34 | 7 | 18 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–17 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 26 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| LA | Q3 13:21 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–17 |
| DAL | Q3 12:22 | 13 | 50 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| LA | Q3 5:32 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–20 |
| DAL | Q3 3:31 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LA | Q3 0:26 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 7–20 |
| DAL | Q4 13:53 | 6 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| LA | Q4 9:22 | 5 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 7–27 |
| DAL | Q4 7:24 | 5 | 34 | Touchdown | 7–34 |
| LA | Q4 4:07 | 10 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 7–34 |
| DAL | Q4 1:38 | 2 | 13 | End of half | 7–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 14/24 | 166 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 25 | 253 | 10.1 | 1 |
| Phillip Tanner | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 5 | 8 | 90 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Laurent Robinson | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.