Closing spread
DAL -14
Total
43
Model margin
+2.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. DAL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 14/24 | 166 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 25 | 253 | 10.1 | 1 |
| Phillip Tanner | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 5 | 8 | 90 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Laurent Robinson | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.