Closing spread
DET -3
Total
48
Model margin
+2.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play-0.004
- 45.2%Success rate43.1%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.142
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.7%
- +4.85CPOE-3.33
- 42.7%Third-down rate42.9%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
- 1.95Points / drive1.75
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 27/47 | 317 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 14 | 95 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 11 | 107 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 8 | 12 | 90 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 14 | 79 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/35 | 242 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 18 | 139 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Durham | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 7 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 10 | 44 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Ryan Broyles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.74