2013 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

32·40

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

48

Model margin

+2.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • +0.077EPA / play-0.004
  • 45.2%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.142
  • 9.9%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +4.85CPOE-3.33
  • 42.7%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
  • 1.95Points / drive1.75
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
DETQ1 15:00620Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:55654Field goal3–0
DETQ1 8:341078Field goal3–3
CHIQ1 2:3842Turnover3–3
DETQ1 1:14418Field goal3–6
CHIQ2 14:28280Touchdown10–6
DETQ2 13:44761Field goal10–9
CHIQ2 10:1932Punt10–9
DETQ2 8:12422Touchdown10–16
CHIQ2 6:0910Turnover10–22
DETQ2 5:5112Touchdown10–23
CHIQ2 5:473-3Punt10–23
DETQ2 3:35245Touchdown10–30
CHIQ2 2:433-4Punt10–30
DETQ2 1:47614Turnover10–30
CHIQ2 0:20336Field goal13–30
CHIQ3 15:0035Punt13–30
DETQ3 12:4633Punt13–30
CHIQ3 11:27573Field goal16–30
DETQ3 9:05520Punt16–30
CHIQ3 6:10616Turnover16–30
DETQ3 3:32535Turnover16–30
CHIQ3 0:363-12Opp touchdown16–37
CHIQ3 0:20626Punt16–37
DETQ4 13:14756Field goal16–40
CHIQ4 8:571387Touchdown24–40
DETQ4 4:00315Turnover24–40
CHIQ4 2:59955Touchdown32–40
DETQ4 0:4300End of half32–40

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler27/4731723

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte14956.81
Alshon Jeffery12727.00
Jay Cutler199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery5111071
Martellus Bennett812900
Brandon Marshall714790
Matt Forte56220
Earl Bennett24191

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/3524211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush181397.71
Joique Bell7121.70
Matthew Stafford581.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kris Durham34580
Brandon Pettigrew77540
Calvin Johnson410441
Reggie Bush46340
Joique Bell44300
Tony Scheffler12220
Ryan Broyles0100
Theo Riddick0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.74