Closing spread
SF -3
Total
43
Model margin
+0.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 15/23 | 167 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 20 | 153 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| LaMichael James | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 7 | 90 | 1 |
| Jon Baldwin | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.93
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.