Closing spread
SF -3
Total
43
Model margin
+0.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
49ers
- QuestionableAnthony DavisTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableKyle WilliamsWRRib· Limited
- QuestionableNnamdi AsomughaCBKnee· DNP
- QuestionablePatrick WillisLBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableRaymond VentroneSConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableVernon DavisTEHamstring· Limited
- ProbableJonathan GoodwinCElbow· Limited
- ProbableJustin SmithDTShoulder· Limited
- ProbableNavorro BowmanLBWrist· Limited
- ProbableRay McDonaldDTAnkle· Limited
- ProbableCarlos RogersCBKnee· Full
- ProbableFrank GoreRBKnee· Full
- ProbableMike IupatiGShoulder· Full
Rams
- OutRodger SaffoldTKnee· DNP
- OutWilliam HayesDEKnee· DNP
- ProbableChris GivensWRKnee· Full
- ProbableChris WilliamsGFoot· Full
- ProbableDaryl RichardsonRBFoot· Full
- ProbableJake LongTFoot· Full
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBFoot· Full
- ProbableJoe BarksdaleTNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableMike McNeillTEChest· Full
- ProbableT.J. McDonaldSKnee· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 11:41 | 5 | 26 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:06 | 4 | 20 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 7:09 | 5 | -5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 4:20 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 1:11 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 14:36 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SF | Q2 9:17 | 7 | 96 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 6:22 | 5 | 46 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| SF | Q2 3:56 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| LA | Q2 0:37 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–3 |
| SF | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 14–3 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 22 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| LA | Q3 14:12 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–3 |
| SF | Q3 13:52 | 12 | 73 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| LA | Q3 8:49 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 21–3 |
| SF | Q3 7:05 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LA | Q3 5:38 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 21–3 |
| SF | Q3 4:20 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LA | Q3 2:37 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 21–3 |
| SF | Q3 1:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LA | Q4 14:48 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 21–3 |
| SF | Q4 13:25 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LA | Q4 11:44 | 2 | -9 | Turnover | 21–3 |
| SF | Q4 11:03 | 2 | 3 | Touchdown | 28–3 |
| LA | Q4 10:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 28–3 |
| SF | Q4 9:00 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 28–3 |
| LA | Q4 6:41 | 4 | 18 | Touchdown | 28–11 |
| SF | Q4 5:44 | 4 | 32 | Touchdown | 35–11 |
| LA | Q4 4:25 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 35–11 |
| SF | Q4 3:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 35–11 |
| LA | Q4 1:43 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 35–11 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 15/23 | 167 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 20 | 153 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| LaMichael James | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 7 | 90 | 1 |
| Jon Baldwin | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.93
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.