Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play-0.040
- 36.3%Success rate41.1%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.009
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.138
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- -1.63CPOE-0.18
- 36.0%Third-down rate35.5%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.33Points / drive1.51
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 19/32 | 269 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 27 | 74 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Bernard Pierce | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 6 | 9 | 121 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 6 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/40 | 307 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 7 | 16 | 105 | 0 |
| Brandon Gibson | 4 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Egnew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.17