2013 · Week 5

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

26·23

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapDolphins
  • -0.096EPA / play-0.040
  • 36.3%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.003EPA / dropback+0.009
  • -0.263EPA / rush-0.138
  • 6.4%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -1.63CPOE-0.18
  • 36.0%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 51.1%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.51
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:53649Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 10:243-9Punt3–0
BALQ1 9:1739Punt3–0
MIAQ1 7:11320Punt3–0
BALQ1 5:15413Turnover3–0
MIAQ1 3:4545Field goal3–3
BALQ1 2:1637Punt3–3
MIAQ1 0:3738Punt3–3
BALQ2 14:15652Field goal6–3
MIAQ2 11:52774Field goal6–6
BALQ2 8:0730Punt6–6
MIAQ2 6:023-2Punt6–6
BALQ2 4:05518Punt6–6
MIAQ2 1:55765Touchdown6–13
BALQ2 0:462-2End of half6–13
BALQ3 15:00825Touchdown13–13
MIAQ3 12:07516Punt13–13
BALQ3 9:521073Field goal16–13
MIAQ3 4:18427Punt16–13
BALQ3 2:361189Touchdown23–13
MIAQ4 12:06650Field goal23–16
BALQ4 9:384-3Opp touchdown23–23
BALQ4 8:03521Punt23–23
MIAQ4 5:253-10Punt23–23
BALQ4 4:07634Field goal26–23
MIAQ4 1:42641Missed field goal26–23
BALQ4 0:3300End of half26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco19/3226901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice27742.72
Bernard Pierce11464.20
Joe Flacco2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith691210
Tandon Doss35580
Ed Dickson22510
Ray Rice67280
Deonte Thompson27110

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill21/4030710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller7152.10
Ryan Tannehill263.00
Daniel Thomas210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace7161050
Brandon Gibson45740
Brian Hartline47600
Charles Clay36521
Daniel Thomas22110
Marcus Thigpen1150
Michael Egnew0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.17