2013 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

9·22

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -10

Total

53

Model margin

+3.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.072
  • 43.1%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.142EPA / rush+0.003
  • 9.7%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -3.33CPOE+2.82
  • 42.9%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 73.4%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.19
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
DETQ1 15:00935Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:141562Field goal0–3
DETQ1 1:243-4Punt0–3
GBQ1 0:141231Field goal0–6
DETQ2 11:19419Punt0–6
GBQ2 8:52944Punt0–6
DETQ2 3:471364Field goal3–6
GBQ2 0:1511End of half3–6
GBQ3 15:00525Punt3–6
DETQ3 12:35824Punt3–6
GBQ3 7:24476Field goal3–9
DETQ3 5:0433Punt3–9
GBQ3 4:06388Touchdown3–16
DETQ3 3:12729Punt3–16
GBQ4 14:51856Field goal3–19
DETQ4 10:161050Turnover on downs3–19
GBQ4 7:01654Field goal3–22
DETQ4 3:50867Touchdown9–22
GBQ4 2:06313Punt9–22
DETQ4 0:1700End of half9–22

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/4026210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush13443.40
Joique Bell5214.20
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Pettigrew45590
Tony Scheffler47550
Joique Bell44300
Kris Durham38301
Ryan Broyles22270
Reggie Bush46250
Kevin Ogletree23200
Pat Edwards25160

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers20/3027410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy23994.30
Randall Cobb27236.00
Aaron Rodgers581.60
Johnathan Franklin310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones461271
Jordy Nelson57820
Randall Cobb48350
Jermichael Finley66320
Ryan Taylor0100
Eddie Lacy11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.30