Closing spread
GB -10
Total
53
Model margin
+3.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.072
- 43.1%Success rate45.4%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.142EPA / rush+0.003
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.1%
- -3.33CPOE+2.82
- 42.9%Third-down rate40.8%
- 73.4%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.75Points / drive2.19
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/40 | 262 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 3 | 8 | 30 | 1 |
| Ryan Broyles | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Pat Edwards | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/30 | 274 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 23 | 99 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 72 | 36.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Johnathan Franklin | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 4 | 6 | 127 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 6 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Ryan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.30