2013 · Week 5

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

26·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

38

Model margin

+2.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapTitans
  • +0.023EPA / play+0.020
  • 42.0%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.124
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -2.44CPOE+1.14
  • 34.4%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.79
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. TEN are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16KC @ TEN9–26TEN
2022 · W9TEN @ KC17–20KC
2021 · W7KC @ TEN3–27TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ KC24–35KC
2019 · W10KC @ TEN32–35TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ KC22–21TEN
2016 · W15TEN @ KC19–17TEN
2014 · W1TEN @ KC26–10TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–TEN
KCQ1 15:001028Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 11:4031Punt7–0
KCQ1 10:37533Punt7–0
TENQ1 7:4139Punt7–0
KCQ1 5:38618Punt7–0
TENQ1 2:1930Punt7–0
KCQ1 1:51453Field goal10–0
TENQ2 14:5538Punt10–0
KCQ2 13:17317Turnover10–0
TENQ2 11:4332Punt10–0
KCQ2 10:453-2Punt10–0
TENQ2 9:301064Turnover on downs10–0
KCQ2 4:09994Field goal13–0
TENQ2 0:0900End of half13–0
TENQ3 15:00582Touchdown13–7
KCQ3 12:0930Punt13–7
TENQ3 11:02951Field goal13–10
KCQ3 6:37420Turnover13–10
TENQ3 4:461129Touchdown13–17
KCQ4 14:52515Punt13–17
TENQ4 12:2939Punt13–17
KCQ4 11:281151Touchdown20–17
TENQ4 6:2310Turnover20–17
KCQ4 6:14423Field goal23–17
TENQ4 4:10419Turnover23–17
KCQ4 2:3933Field goal26–17
TENQ4 2:121066Missed field goal26–17

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith20/3924501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles221084.91
Alex Smith3103.30
Knile Davis122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donnie Avery34910
Sean McGrath46540
Jamaal Charles59370
Dwayne Bowe46350
Chad Hall1490
Junior Hemingway1160
Kevin Brock0200
Dexter McCluster0300
A.J. Jenkins0100
Knile Davis0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/4124712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Fitzpatrick6508.31
Jackie Battle6386.30
Chris Johnson10171.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright68740
Chris Johnson45631
Delanie Walker46430
Nate Washington38300
Jackie Battle12240
Kenny Britt1690
Damian Williams1240
Ryan Fitzpatrick1100
Justin Hunter0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.58