Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.023EPA / play+0.020
- 42.0%Success rate42.3%
- +0.073EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.124
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- -2.44CPOE+1.14
- 34.4%Third-down rate41.0%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.79Points / drive1.79
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. TEN are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/39 | 245 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 4 | 91 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kevin Brock | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/41 | 247 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Jackie Battle | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 6 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 4 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.58