2013 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

36·21

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

53.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.142
  • 46.4%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.235
  • 13.5%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +2.43CPOE-3.07
  • 39.3%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 56.7%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.06
  • 1.7%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
PHIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NYGQ1 14:01562Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 11:371154Field goal3–7
NYGQ1 6:49956Punt3–7
PHIQ1 1:36517Punt3–7
NYGQ1 0:0837Punt3–7
PHIQ2 14:01751Field goal6–7
NYGQ2 10:4036Punt6–7
PHIQ2 9:40471Touchdown13–7
NYGQ2 8:11427Turnover13–7
PHIQ2 6:29736Field goal16–7
NYGQ2 2:38626Punt16–7
PHIQ2 1:331170Field goal19–7
NYGQ3 15:0034Punt19–7
PHIQ3 13:23713Punt19–7
NYGQ3 10:42892Touchdown19–14
PHIQ3 6:5838Punt19–14
NYGQ3 5:43819Touchdown19–21
PHIQ3 3:46830Field goal22–21
NYGQ3 1:04515Punt22–21
PHIQ4 13:5730Punt22–21
NYGQ4 13:07531Turnover28–21
PHIQ4 10:35125Touchdown29–21
NYGQ4 10:2630Turnover29–21
PHIQ4 10:02438Touchdown36–21
NYGQ4 8:24525Turnover36–21
PHIQ4 7:05310Punt36–21
NYGQ4 4:15613Punt36–21
PHIQ4 2:33314End of half36–21

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles16/2519720
Mike Vick6/1410500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick77911.30
LeSean McCoy20462.31
Bryce Brown5112.20
Chris Polk231.50
Nick Foles310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson7121321
Brent Celek33471
LeSean McCoy68460
Zach Ertz23380
Jason Avant37330
Bryce Brown1260
Riley Cooper0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning24/5233423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs11373.40
David Wilson6162.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks9121420
Rueben Randle613962
Victor Cruz512480
Brandon Myers25350
Jerrel Jernigan23130
Brandon Jacobs0300
David Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.10
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.33