Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
53.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.142
- 46.4%Success rate40.2%
- +0.181EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.235
- 13.5%Explosive rate8.8%
- +2.43CPOE-3.07
- 39.3%Third-down rate32.2%
- 56.7%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.91Points / drive1.06
- 1.7%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 16/25 | 197 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 6/14 | 105 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 7 | 79 | 11.3 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 20 | 46 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 7 | 12 | 132 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/52 | 334 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 9 | 12 | 142 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 6 | 13 | 96 | 2 |
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 12 | 48 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.10
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.33