Closing spread
SD -6
Total
46
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutKing DunlapTConcussion· DNP
- DoubtfulChad RinehartGToe· DNP
- QuestionableJeromey ClaryGCollarbone· Full
- QuestionableJohnny PatrickCBChest· DNP
- QuestionableRich OhrnbergerGGroin· Limited
- QuestionableShareece WrightCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableDerek CoxCBKnee· Full
- ProbableManti Te'oLBFoot· Full
Raiders
- OutTyvon BranchSAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulDarren McFaddenRBHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulStefen WisniewskiCKnee· DNP
- QuestionableLucas NixGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMarcel ReeceRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMenelik WatsonTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableStacy McGeeDTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableTony PashosTGroin· DNP
- ProbableJason HunterDEQuadricep· Limited
- ProbableCharles WoodsonSNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableTerrelle PryorQBConcussion· Full
- ProbableTracy PorterCBRib· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 13:11 | 1 | 44 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 13:03 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:36 | 14 | 88 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q1 1:28 | 14 | 64 | Turnover on downs | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 9:58 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 5:47 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 4:13 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LV | Q2 1:51 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 0:41 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 0–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q3 12:06 | 14 | 80 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| LV | Q3 4:51 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 3:13 | 2 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 3–24 |
| LAC | Q3 2:37 | 8 | 90 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| LV | Q4 14:57 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–24 |
| LAC | Q4 12:45 | 6 | 29 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| LV | Q4 10:17 | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 17–27 |
| LAC | Q4 4:24 | 8 | 76 | Turnover | 17–27 |
| LV | Q4 1:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–27 |
| LAC | Q4 1:16 | 2 | 30 | Turnover | 17–27 |
| LV | Q4 0:45 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–27 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.