Closing spread
SF -10
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.034
- 41.6%Success rate41.8%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.156
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- +3.74CPOE-1.63
- 35.3%Third-down rate37.8%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.71Points / drive1.99
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 25/41 | 298 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 12 | 117 | 1 |
| Brittan Golden | 1 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/29 | 252 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 25 | 101 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 8 | 11 | 180 | 2 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.97