Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutMenelik WatsonTCalf· DNP
- OutStefen WisniewskiCKnee· DNP
- OutTyvon BranchSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableDarren McFaddenRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableKaluka MaiavaLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableRashad JenningsRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableStacy McGeeDTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableTony PashosTGroin· Limited
- ProbableMarcel ReeceRBKnee· Limited
Chiefs
- OutTravis KelceTEKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulAnthony FasanoTEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon FlowersCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableKendrick LewisSAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAnthony ShermanRBKnee· Full
- ProbableDezman MosesLBToe· Full
- ProbableDonnie AveryWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableDustin ColquittPright Knee· Full
- ProbableEric FisherTConcussion· Full
- ProbableGeoff SchwartzTTricep· Full
- ProbableJamaal CharlesRBToes· Full
- ProbableJeff AllenGGroin· Full
- ProbableJustin HoustonLBConcussion· Full
- ProbableSean McGrathTEKnee· Full
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:32 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 9:21 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:03 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 5:22 | 9 | 38 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:31 | 8 | 63 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| KC | Q2 12:21 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q2 11:56 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 8:40 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 5:57 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q2 2:09 | 6 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 0:41 | 3 | 7 | End of half | 7–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 0 | Punt | 7–7 |
| KC | Q3 12:51 | 9 | 57 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LV | Q3 7:47 | 7 | 25 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| KC | Q3 3:57 | 5 | 21 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LV | Q3 2:01 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 7–14 |
| KC | Q3 0:01 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q4 14:09 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| KC | Q4 12:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q4 10:46 | 10 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| KC | Q4 5:26 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q4 4:29 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| KC | Q4 4:09 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| LV | Q4 2:09 | 4 | 13 | Opp touchdown | 7–24 |
| LV | Q4 1:35 | 9 | 39 | End of half | 7–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 14/31 | 128 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Kevin Brock | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.