2013 · Week 6

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

31·20

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.089
  • 46.4%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback-0.049
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.147
  • 13.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.43CPOE-1.72
  • 39.3%Third-down rate31.1%
  • 56.7%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.34
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4PHI @ TB31–25PHI
2024 · W4PHI @ TB16–33TB
2023 · playoffsPHI @ TB9–32TB
2023 · W3PHI @ TB25–11PHI
2021 · playoffsPHI @ TB15–31TB
2021 · W6TB @ PHI28–22TB
2018 · W2PHI @ TB21–27TB
2015 · W11TB @ PHI45–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–TB
PHIQ1 15:00885Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 11:4631Punt7–0
PHIQ1 10:43113Turnover7–0
TBQ1 10:36620Field goal7–3
PHIQ1 6:30612Punt7–3
TBQ1 3:41419Punt7–3
PHIQ1 1:4935Punt7–3
TBQ1 0:41439Touchdown7–10
PHIQ2 14:46821Punt7–10
TBQ2 12:0445Punt7–10
PHIQ2 10:25854Touchdown14–10
TBQ2 7:051194Touchdown14–17
PHIQ2 1:02724Punt14–17
TBQ3 15:00342Turnover14–17
PHIQ3 13:39566Touchdown21–17
TBQ3 11:41943Punt21–17
PHIQ3 6:20626Punt21–17
TBQ3 3:451784Field goal21–20
PHIQ4 10:48380Touchdown28–20
TBQ4 9:323-10Punt28–20
PHIQ4 8:031244Field goal31–20
TBQ4 2:34814Turnover on downs31–20
PHIQ4 0:3400End of half31–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles22/3129630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy251164.60
Bryce Brown5204.00
Nick Foles320.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Riley Cooper461201
DeSean Jackson66642
LeSean McCoy22550
Jason Avant46210
Zach Ertz36130
Brent Celek11100
Damaris Johnson1180
Jeff Maehl1150
Bryce Brown0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon26/4327321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin16674.20
Mike Glennon3206.70
Mike James273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson9141142
Timothy Wright79910
Chris Owusu34280
Doug Martin44240
Jeff Demps22130
Brian Leonard1130
Tom Crabtree0100
Tiquan Underwood0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.0%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.78