2013 · Week 6
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.089
- 46.4%Success rate37.6%
- +0.181EPA / dropback-0.049
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.147
- 13.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.43CPOE-1.72
- 39.3%Third-down rate31.1%
- 56.7%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 1.91Points / drive1.34
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. TB are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 22/31 | 296 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 25 | 116 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Cooper | 4 | 6 | 120 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 6 | 6 | 64 | 2 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeff Maehl | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 26/43 | 273 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Mike James | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 9 | 14 | 114 | 2 |
| Timothy Wright | 7 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jeff Demps | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.78