2013 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

16·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -5.5

Total

52

Model margin

+2.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.062
  • 42.2%Success rate47.2%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.065EPA / rush+0.011
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -3.92CPOE+0.26
  • 40.7%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.37Points / drive2.21
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:001271Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 8:521278Field goal3–7
DALQ1 1:38934Turnover3–7
WASQ2 12:1458Punt3–7
DALQ2 9:16722Punt3–7
WASQ2 6:03727Opp touchdown3–14
WASQ2 2:261053Field goal6–14
WASQ3 15:00950Field goal9–14
DALQ3 10:03215Touchdown9–21
WASQ3 9:03616Punt9–21
DALQ3 5:1630Punt9–21
WASQ3 4:20356Touchdown16–21
DALQ3 3:433-5Punt16–21
WASQ3 2:47830Missed field goal16–21
DALQ4 14:42959Field goal16–24
WASQ4 10:363-1Turnover16–24
DALQ4 9:3623Touchdown16–31
WASQ4 8:49858Turnover16–31
DALQ4 5:08417Punt16–31
WASQ4 3:06526Turnover on downs16–31
DALQ4 2:103-3Punt16–31
WASQ4 0:14232End of half16–31

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III19/3924601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris16815.11
Robert Griffin III9778.60
Roy Helu6427.00
Santana Moss1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon615690
Jordan Reed46580
Santana Moss23420
Leonard Hankerson26360
Roy Helu46350
Josh Morgan1160
Alfred Morris0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo18/3017011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray7294.11
Joseph Randle11171.51
Phillip Tanner122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley45440
Dez Bryant58360
Jason Witten35270
Terrance Williams22271
DeMarco Murray22210
Joseph Randle22150
Miles Austin0400
James Hanna0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.33