2013 · Week 6 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -5.5
Total
52
Model margin
+2.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.062
- 42.2%Success rate47.2%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.065EPA / rush+0.011
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- -3.92CPOE+0.26
- 40.7%Third-down rate35.6%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.37Points / drive2.21
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 19/39 | 246 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 9 | 77 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 15 | 69 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 2 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 18/30 | 170 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Joseph Randle | 11 | 17 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Phillip Tanner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 5 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.33