Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play-0.001
- 36.3%Success rate42.4%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.096
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.173
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.63CPOE+3.30
- 36.0%Third-down rate37.6%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.33Points / drive1.82
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 24/34 | 215 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 3 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/23 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Derek Moye | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| David Paulson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.11