2013 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

16·19

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

41

Model margin

+5.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • -0.096EPA / play-0.001
  • 36.3%Success rate42.4%
  • -0.003EPA / dropback+0.096
  • -0.263EPA / rush-0.173
  • 6.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.63CPOE+3.30
  • 36.0%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 51.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.82
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
PITQ1 15:00427Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:2531Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:291060Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 5:24949Field goal3–7
PITQ1 0:05839Field goal3–10
BALQ2 9:591042Punt3–10
PITQ2 4:40951Turnover3–10
BALQ2 0:39418Field goal6–10
PITQ2 0:0800End of half6–10
BALQ3 15:00928Punt6–10
PITQ3 10:591358Field goal6–13
BALQ3 2:561166Field goal9–13
PITQ4 13:04518Field goal9–16
BALQ4 9:591783Touchdown16–16
PITQ4 1:58734Field goal16–19

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco24/3421510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice15453.00
Joe Flacco2147.00
Bernard Pierce6132.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith36610
Tandon Doss23350
Jacoby Jones48320
Ray Rice45270
Marlon Brown44220
Ed Dickson22170
Dallas Clark3491
Bernard Pierce1190

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger17/2316010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell19934.90
Ben Roethlisberger3258.30
Felix Jones5163.20
Jonathan Dwyer144.00
Antonio Brown133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown67500
Jerricho Cotchery44410
Derek Moye12190
Heath Miller24171
David Paulson11170
Emmanuel Sanders1270
Le'Veon Bell1160
Felix Jones1130
Will Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.11