Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
55
Model margin
+4.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.100
- 47.2%Success rate46.4%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.181
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.009
- 8.8%Explosive rate13.5%
- +0.26CPOE+2.43
- 35.6%Third-down rate39.3%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
- 2.21Points / drive1.91
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 28/47 | 317 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Randle | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 8 | 17 | 110 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 6 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Barkley | 11/20 | 129 | 0 | 3 |
| Nick Foles | 11/29 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Cooper | 6 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 12 | 32 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeff Maehl | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.79