2013 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

17·3

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

55

Model margin

+4.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.062EPA / play+0.100
  • 47.2%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback+0.181
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.009
  • 8.8%Explosive rate13.5%
  • +0.26CPOE+2.43
  • 35.6%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.91
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:3739Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:39733Punt0–0
DALQ1 8:49954Punt0–0
PHIQ1 4:34510Punt0–0
DALQ1 3:06314Punt0–0
PHIQ1 1:323-1Punt0–0
DALQ2 14:5149Punt0–0
PHIQ2 13:39616Punt0–0
DALQ2 11:26634Punt0–0
PHIQ2 8:1133Punt0–0
DALQ2 6:59744Field goal3–0
PHIQ2 3:1767Punt3–0
DALQ2 1:4337Punt3–0
PHIQ2 1:02631Missed field goal3–0
DALQ2 0:0924Turnover3–0
DALQ3 15:001168Touchdown10–0
PHIQ3 9:17410Punt10–0
DALQ3 7:5538Punt10–0
PHIQ3 6:4736Punt10–0
DALQ3 6:00833Turnover10–0
PHIQ3 2:46917Field goal10–3
DALQ4 14:571072Touchdown17–3
PHIQ4 9:25833Turnover17–3
DALQ4 7:0238Punt17–3
PHIQ4 5:17726Turnover17–3
DALQ4 4:0336Punt17–3
PHIQ4 2:56976Turnover17–3
DALQ4 0:5800End of half17–3

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo28/4731712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Randle19653.40
Dwayne Harris166.00
Tony Romo420.50
Phillip Tanner210.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant8171100
Terrance Williams67711
Cole Beasley67530
Jason Witten46480
Joseph Randle34280
Phillip Tanner1270
Miles Austin0300
Gavin Escobar0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Barkley11/2012903
Nick Foles11/298000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy18553.10
Nick Foles3258.30
Bryce Brown242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Riley Cooper67880
Zach Ertz35330
Jason Avant312320
LeSean McCoy67260
DeSean Jackson38210
Brent Celek1490
Jeff Maehl0400
Bryce Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.79