2013 · Week 7

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Case Keenum

16·17

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

KC -7

Total

38.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapChiefs
  • -0.109EPA / play+0.023
  • 40.7%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.116EPA / dropback+0.073
  • -0.099EPA / rush-0.065
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -3.08CPOE-2.44
  • 36.4%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.79
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14HOU @ KC20–10HOU
2024 · playoffsHOU @ KC14–23KC
2024 · W16HOU @ KC19–27KC
2022 · W15KC @ HOU30–24KC
2020 · W1HOU @ KC20–34KC
2019 · playoffsHOU @ KC31–51KC
2019 · W6HOU @ KC31–24HOU
2017 · W5KC @ HOU42–34KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–KC
KCQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:07932Field goal3–0
KCQ1 8:121167Touchdown3–7
HOUQ1 2:43581Touchdown10–7
KCQ2 14:54511Punt10–7
HOUQ2 13:371063Punt10–7
KCQ2 7:311598Touchdown10–14
HOUQ2 0:56539End of half10–14
HOUQ3 15:0064Punt10–14
KCQ3 12:1425Turnover10–14
HOUQ3 11:31425Field goal13–14
KCQ3 9:24632Field goal13–17
HOUQ3 6:07451Field goal16–17
KCQ3 4:211091Turnover on downs16–17
HOUQ4 13:43530Punt16–17
KCQ4 11:2833Punt16–17
HOUQ4 9:373-18Punt16–17
KCQ4 7:24419Turnover16–17
HOUQ4 5:473-4Punt16–17
KCQ4 4:04625Punt16–17
HOUQ4 1:462-9Turnover16–17
KCQ4 1:3400End of half16–17

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum15/2527110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate15503.30
Arian Foster4112.80
Case Keenum3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson46890
DeAndre Hopkins34761
DeVier Posey12420
Garrett Graham38380
Lestar Jean22210
Ben Tate2350

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith23/3424001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles21864.11
Alex Smith6284.71
Knile Davis252.50
Dexter McCluster242.00
Cyrus Gray133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dexter McCluster45700
Dwayne Bowe59660
Jamaal Charles34370
Donnie Avery34330
Anthony Fasano45270
Sean McGrath1210
Alex Smith11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.39