Closing spread
KC -7
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play+0.023
- 40.7%Success rate42.0%
- -0.116EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.065
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- -3.08CPOE-2.44
- 36.4%Third-down rate34.4%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.07Points / drive1.79
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 15/25 | 271 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 4 | 76 | 1 |
| DeVier Posey | 1 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 23/34 | 240 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 21 | 86 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.39