Closing spread
SD -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutChad RinehartGToe· DNP
- DoubtfulDonald ButlerLBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRToe· DNP
- QuestionableJarret JohnsonLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableStephen SchillingTNeck· Limited
- ProbableCorey LiugetDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableD.J. FlukerTCalf· Full
- ProbableJeromey ClaryGCollarbone· Full
- ProbableJohnny PatrickCBChest· Full
- ProbableRichard MarshallCBGroin· Full
- ProbableRonnie BrownRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableShareece WrightCBHamstring· Full
Jaguars
- OutAce SandersWRConcussion· DNP
- OutBlaine GabbertQBHamstring· Limited
- OutJeremy MinceyDEConcussion· DNP
- OutStephen BurtonWRConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableCecil ShortsWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDwayne GratzCBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJohnathan CyprienSCalf· Limited
- QuestionableJustin BlackmonWRHamstring· DNP
- ProbableMarcedes LewisTECalf· Limited
- ProbableRoy MillerDTShoulder· Limited
- ProbableAndre BranchDEKnee· Full
- ProbableJordan TodmanRBThigh· Full
- ProbableRussell AllenLBRibs· Full
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 7:23 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:44 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q2 12:36 | 18 | 66 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| LAC | Q2 4:50 | 15 | 79 | End of half | 14–3 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 14–3 |
| LAC | Q3 13:09 | 10 | 94 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| JAX | Q3 6:48 | 7 | 75 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| LAC | Q3 3:54 | 10 | 84 | Touchdown | 24–6 |
| JAX | Q4 14:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 24–6 |
| LAC | Q4 12:21 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–6 |
| JAX | Q4 10:38 | 6 | 55 | Turnover on downs | 24–6 |
| LAC | Q4 8:55 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 24–6 |
| JAX | Q4 6:47 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 24–6 |
| LAC | Q4 6:15 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 24–6 |
| JAX | Q4 3:53 | 13 | 91 | Turnover on downs | 24–6 |
| LAC | Q4 1:35 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 23/36 | 318 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Brown | 5 | 8 | 120 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 8 | 13 | 80 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.26
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.