Closing spread
SD -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 9–6 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.5 points. JAX are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 23/36 | 318 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Brown | 5 | 8 | 120 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 8 | 13 | 80 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.26
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.