Closing spread
SEA -5
Total
41
Model margin
-0.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.020
- 44.6%Success rate41.6%
- +0.190EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.109
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- +5.19CPOE+3.74
- 38.4%Third-down rate35.3%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 2.17Points / drive1.71
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/29 | 235 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 91 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 4 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 3 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 5 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 30/45 | 258 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 13 | 22 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 7 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 5 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.15