2013 · Week 7 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -6
Total
43
Model margin
+3.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.007
- 37.6%Success rate44.7%
- -0.049EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.137
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.3%
- -1.72CPOE+2.86
- 31.1%Third-down rate42.4%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.34Points / drive1.70
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 26/44 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mike James | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 10 | 22 | 138 | 2 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike James | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/26 | 273 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | -12 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 7 | 7 | 149 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 8 | 9 | 46 | 2 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Drew Davis | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Darius Johnson | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+3.86