2013 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

23·31

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -6

Total

43

Model margin

+3.9est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.007
  • 37.6%Success rate44.7%
  • -0.049EPA / dropback+0.068
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.137
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -1.72CPOE+2.86
  • 31.1%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.70
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:513-15Opp touchdown0–7
TBQ1 11:54627Punt0–7
ATLQ1 9:04732Punt0–7
TBQ1 6:09724Punt0–7
ATLQ1 2:46972Touchdown0–14
TBQ2 13:23380Touchdown7–14
ATLQ2 11:54974Field goal7–17
TBQ2 7:38311Punt7–23
ATLQ2 5:40137Touchdown7–24
TBQ2 5:321454Field goal10–24
TBQ3 15:0034Punt10–24
TBQ3 13:15923Touchdown17–24
ATLQ3 9:03313Punt17–24
TBQ3 7:35816Punt17–24
ATLQ3 2:54868Touchdown17–31
TBQ4 14:062170Field goal20–31
ATLQ4 5:0030Punt20–31
TBQ4 3:51643Field goal23–31
ATLQ4 1:5500End of half23–31

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon26/4425620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin11474.30
Mike James14453.20
Mike Glennon11313.00
Brian Leonard263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson10221382
Mike Williams45320
Chris Owusu33270
Timothy Wright23150
Tom Crabtree12140
Brian Leonard1290
Mike James3380
Doug Martin1370
Tiquan Underwood1160

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/2627330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers8162.00
Matt Ryan3-12-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas771491
Jacquizz Rodgers89462
Tony Gonzalez24300
Drew Davis11240
Darius Johnson23240
Brian Robiskie0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+3.86