2012 · Week 11

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

19·23

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -9.5

Total

43

Model margin

+7.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.259EPA / play+0.091
  • 35.1%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback+0.234
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.192
  • 6.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -8.47CPOE+5.71
  • 25.9%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 36.3%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 0.79Points / drive2.31
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16ATL @ ARI26–19ATL
2023 · W10ATL @ ARI23–25ARI
2022 · W17ARI @ ATL19–20ATL
2019 · W6ATL @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W15ARI @ ATL14–40ATL
2016 · W12ARI @ ATL19–38ATL
2014 · W13ARI @ ATL18–29ATL
2013 · W8ATL @ ARI13–27ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 14:4129Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 13:5430Punt7–0
ARIQ1 12:59440Field goal10–0
ATLQ1 10:59421Punt10–0
ARIQ1 8:0730Punt10–0
ATLQ1 6:27523Turnover10–0
ARIQ1 4:4135Punt10–0
ATLQ1 3:3434Turnover10–0
ARIQ1 2:4039Field goal13–0
ATLQ1 1:021352Field goal13–3
ARIQ2 9:3931Opp touchdown13–10
ARIQ2 8:373-3Punt13–10
ATLQ2 6:48981Field goal13–13
ARIQ2 1:52669Field goal16–13
ATLQ2 0:32450Field goal16–16
ARIQ3 15:001120Punt16–16
ATLQ3 9:07611Turnover16–16
ARIQ3 7:0246Punt16–16
ATLQ3 5:0434Punt16–16
ARIQ3 3:3037Punt16–16
ATLQ3 1:4910Turnover16–16
ARIQ3 1:4337Field goal19–16
ATLQ4 14:56624Punt19–16
ARIQ4 11:4039Punt19–16
ATLQ4 9:44770Touchdown19–23
ARIQ4 6:403-9Punt19–23
ATLQ4 5:0123Turnover19–23
ARIQ4 4:0848Turnover on downs19–23
ATLQ4 3:06314End of half19–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Lindley9/206400
John Skelton2/7600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaRod Stephens-Howling221275.81
William Powell4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Early Doucet57280
Michael Floyd24180
Larry Fitzgerald17110
Andre Roberts1570
LaRod Stephens-Howling2460

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan28/4630105

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner15463.11
Jacquizz Rodgers5163.20
Matt Ryan3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White8131230
Harry Douglas56480
Jacquizz Rodgers56350
Tony Gonzalez38330
Julio Jones37330
Drew Davis1140
Michael Turner0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.55.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.2%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+7.31