Closing spread
ATL -9.5
Total
43
Model margin
+7.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.259EPA / play+0.091
- 35.1%Success rate46.4%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.234
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.192
- 6.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- -8.47CPOE+5.71
- 25.9%Third-down rate44.9%
- 36.3%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 0.79Points / drive2.31
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Lindley | 9/20 | 64 | 0 | 0 |
| John Skelton | 2/7 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 22 | 127 | 5.8 | 1 |
| William Powell | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Doucet | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 28/46 | 301 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 8 | 13 | 123 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Drew Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+7.31