2013 · Week 8

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

30·31

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

51

Model margin

+3.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapLions
  • +0.062EPA / play-0.004
  • 47.2%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback+0.083
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.142
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +0.26CPOE-3.33
  • 35.6%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.75
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–7 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DET are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DAL @ DET30–44DET
2024 · W6DET @ DAL47–9DET
2023 · W17DET @ DAL19–20DAL
2022 · W7DET @ DAL6–24DAL
2019 · W11DAL @ DET35–27DAL
2018 · W4DET @ DAL24–26DAL
2016 · W16DET @ DAL21–42DAL
2014 · playoffsDET @ DAL20–24DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–DET
DETQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
DALQ1 14:02511Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:13525Punt0–0
DALQ1 7:41737Punt0–0
DETQ1 3:21690Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 0:5430Punt0–7
DETQ1 0:28318Turnover0–7
DALQ2 14:1334Punt0–7
DETQ2 13:03526Punt0–7
DALQ2 10:16840Field goal3–7
DETQ2 5:391058Turnover3–7
DALQ2 1:3834Touchdown10–7
DETQ2 0:46429Punt10–7
DALQ2 0:1500End of half10–7
DALQ3 15:00522Punt10–7
DETQ3 12:32535Turnover10–7
DALQ3 9:44617Punt10–7
DETQ3 7:05556Turnover10–7
DALQ3 3:5830Field goal13–7
DETQ3 3:02961Field goal13–10
DALQ4 13:13371Touchdown20–10
DETQ4 11:32859Touchdown20–17
DALQ4 7:38252Touchdown27–17
DETQ4 6:45780Touchdown27–24
DALQ4 3:334-2Punt27–24
DETQ4 2:244-2Turnover on downs27–24
DALQ4 1:2435Field goal30–24
DETQ4 1:02580Touchdown30–31
DALQ4 0:1218End of half30–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo14/3020630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Randle14261.90
Lance Dunbar5163.20
Phillip Tanner284.00
Tony Romo362.00
Terrance Williams155.00
Dez Bryant111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant36722
Terrance Williams210641
Joseph Randle34180
Phillip Tanner11170
Jason Witten22150
James Hanna22120
Cole Beasley1380
Dwayne Harris0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford33/4848812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush21924.41
Joique Bell4328.01
Matthew Stafford3124.01
Theo Riddick177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson14173291
Kris Durham46540
Brandon Pettigrew36310
Reggie Bush89300
Joique Bell11220
Ryan Broyles1280
Jeremy Ross1370
Theo Riddick1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.14