Closing spread
DET -3
Total
51
Model margin
+3.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play-0.004
- 47.2%Success rate43.1%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.083
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.142
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- +0.26CPOE-3.33
- 35.6%Third-down rate42.9%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
- 2.21Points / drive1.75
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DET are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 14/30 | 206 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Randle | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 6 | 72 | 2 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 10 | 64 | 1 |
| Joseph Randle | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 33/48 | 488 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 21 | 92 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 14 | 17 | 329 | 1 |
| Kris Durham | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 8 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Ryan Broyles | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14