2013 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

44·31

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.072EPA / play-0.017
  • 45.4%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback-0.026
  • +0.003EPA / rush-0.002
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +2.82CPOE-2.09
  • 40.8%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 2.19Points / drive1.75
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
MINQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 14:471574Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 7:23526Punt7–7
GBQ1 3:531665Field goal10–7
MINQ2 10:291152Field goal10–10
GBQ2 5:09380Touchdown17–10
MINQ2 3:38420Opp touchdown24–10
MINQ2 1:30951Touchdown24–17
GBQ2 0:0400End of half24–17
GBQ3 15:001695Touchdown31–17
MINQ3 6:5044Punt31–17
GBQ3 4:481084Touchdown38–17
MINQ4 14:1633Punt38–17
GBQ4 12:46953Field goal41–17
MINQ4 6:10558Touchdown41–24
GBQ4 4:42516Field goal44–24
MINQ4 2:53629Touchdown44–31
GBQ4 1:2400End of half44–31

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/2928520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy29943.21
James Starks7578.11
Aaron Rodgers6315.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson781232
Jarrett Boykin56890
Myles White57350
Eddie Lacy44180
Andrew Quarless22130

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder14/2114500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson13604.61
Christian Ponder5387.61
Toby Gerhart11313.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph44510
Cordarrelle Patterson23260
Adrian Peterson33230
Jerome Simpson13180
Toby Gerhart22150
Greg Jennings1390
John Carlson1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.96
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.01