Closing spread
GB -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.017
- 45.4%Success rate41.4%
- +0.115EPA / dropback-0.026
- +0.003EPA / rush-0.002
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- +2.82CPOE-2.09
- 40.8%Third-down rate36.4%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 2.19Points / drive1.75
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/29 | 285 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 29 | 94 | 3.2 | 1 |
| James Starks | 7 | 57 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 7 | 8 | 123 | 2 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 5 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| Myles White | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 14/21 | 145 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.96
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.01