Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
49
Model margin
-0.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.142EPA / play+0.100
- 40.2%Success rate46.4%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.235EPA / rush-0.009
- 8.8%Explosive rate13.5%
- -3.07CPOE+2.43
- 32.2%Third-down rate39.3%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate56.7%
- 1.06Points / drive1.91
- 4.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/39 | 246 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 20 | 70 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Michael Cox | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 7 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 7 | 12 | 51 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Michael Cox | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Barkley | 17/26 | 158 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 6/9 | 30 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 8 | 11 | 63 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.10
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.27