2009 · Week 17

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

0·37

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 20°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

NYJ -9.5

Total

33.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapJets
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.060
  • 42.9%Success rate39.7%
  • +0.038EPA / dropback-0.151
  • -0.082EPA / rush+0.011
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -0.82CPOE-5.62
  • 41.6%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 54.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.61
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. NYJ are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYJ @ CIN39–38NYJ
2022 · W3CIN @ NYJ27–12CIN
2021 · W8CIN @ NYJ31–34NYJ
2019 · W13NYJ @ CIN6–22CIN
2016 · W1CIN @ NYJ23–22CIN
2013 · W8NYJ @ CIN9–49CIN
2010 · W12CIN @ NYJ10–26NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ CIN24–14NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00772Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 10:4631Punt0–7
NYJQ1 9:402169Field goal0–10
CINQ2 13:293-3Punt0–10
NYJQ2 12:2238Punt0–10
CINQ2 10:2660Punt0–10
NYJQ2 8:45447Touchdown0–17
CINQ2 6:3739Punt0–17
NYJQ2 5:381055Touchdown0–24
CINQ2 0:3710Turnover0–24
NYJQ2 0:202-1Field goal0–27
CINQ3 15:0032Punt0–27
NYJQ3 12:42618Field goal0–30
CINQ3 9:47833Punt0–30
NYJQ3 4:4539Punt0–30
CINQ3 2:26628Turnover0–30
NYJQ4 14:47926Touchdown0–37
CINQ4 9:55611Punt0–37
NYJQ4 6:46620Punt0–37
CINQ4 2:153-9Turnover0–37
NYJQ4 1:4700End of half0–37

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.T. O'Sullivan3/83100
Carson Palmer1/11001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Larry Johnson9384.20
Bernard Scott6203.30
Brian Leonard188.00
J.T. O'Sullivan133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles33190
Daniel Coats11120
Chad Johnson0400
Larry Johnson0100
Brian Leonard0100
Jerome Simpson0100
Andre Caldwell0400
Quan Cosby0100
Bernard Scott0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez8/166300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brad Smith49223.01
Thomas Jones27782.92
Shonn Greene13624.80
Danny Woodhead6203.30
Jerricho Cotchery166.01
Mark Sanchez221.00
Kellen Clemens3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerricho Cotchery56390
Braylon Edwards27150
Dustin Keller1190
Ben Hartsock0100
Wallace Wright0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.16