Closing spread
NYJ -9.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.060
- 42.9%Success rate39.7%
- +0.038EPA / dropback-0.151
- -0.082EPA / rush+0.011
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.1%
- -0.82CPOE-5.62
- 41.6%Third-down rate37.4%
- 54.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.65Points / drive1.61
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NYJ are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 3/8 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1/11 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Quan Cosby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 8/16 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Smith | 4 | 92 | 23.0 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 27 | 78 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Shonn Greene | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ben Hartsock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wallace Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.16