Closing spread
SEA -13
Total
43
Model margin
-0.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Seahawks
- OutBreno GiacominiTKnee· DNP
- OutDerrick ColemanRBHamstring· DNP
- OutJeron JohnsonSHamstring· DNP
- ProbableBobby WagnerLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableChristine MichaelRBIllness· Full
- ProbableGolden TateWRShoulder· Full
Rams
- QuestionableBenny CunninghamRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableCortland FinneganCBThigh· DNP
- QuestionableScott WellsCThigh· Limited
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:40 | 6 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:04 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 4:37 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:38 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 0:19 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 12:12 | 7 | 39 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q2 8:18 | 7 | 18 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 5:37 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q2 3:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 2:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q2 0:48 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q3 12:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q3 11:57 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q3 9:52 | 11 | 37 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| SEA | Q3 4:01 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| LA | Q3 3:45 | 11 | 49 | Field goal | 14–9 |
| SEA | Q4 12:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–9 |
| LA | Q4 11:53 | 7 | 22 | Missed field goal | 14–9 |
| SEA | Q4 8:28 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 14–9 |
| LA | Q4 5:42 | 13 | 95 | Turnover on downs | 14–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 10/18 | 139 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 5 | 7 | 93 | 2 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.