2013 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Josh McCown

27·20

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

GB -10

Total

50.5

Model margin

-2.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.072
  • 45.2%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.072EPA / rush+0.003
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +4.85CPOE+2.82
  • 42.7%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.95Points / drive2.19
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
GBQ1 15:00753Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 12:24871Touchdown7–3
GBQ1 9:48845Turnover7–3
CHIQ1 5:0131Punt7–9
GBQ1 3:45132Touchdown7–10
CHIQ1 3:38628Punt7–10
GBQ2 15:0036Punt7–10
CHIQ2 13:02660Touchdown14–10
GBQ2 9:2638Punt14–10
CHIQ2 7:2236Punt14–10
GBQ2 6:16519Punt14–10
CHIQ2 4:161193Field goal17–10
CHIQ3 15:0033Punt17–10
GBQ3 13:57257Touchdown17–17
CHIQ3 13:0400Field goal17–17
GBQ3 13:02946Field goal17–20
CHIQ3 8:45622Punt17–20
GBQ3 6:1934Punt17–20
CHIQ3 5:19747Touchdown24–20
GBQ3 2:41638Punt24–20
CHIQ4 14:01516Punt24–20
GBQ4 12:2556Punt24–20
CHIQ4 9:481995Field goal27–20
GBQ4 0:503-2End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown22/4127220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte241255.21
Michael Bush7253.60
Josh McCown12020.00
Alshon Jeffery111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall7131071
Alshon Jeffery59601
Matt Forte58540
Martellus Bennett48360
Michael Bush11150
Marquess Wilson0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace11/1911401
Aaron Rodgers1/22700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy221506.81
James Starks6406.71
Aaron Rodgers199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson49670
Andrew Quarless57340
James Jones13170
Jarrett Boykin11150
Myles White1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.6%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.23
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-2.79