Closing spread
GB -10
Total
50.5
Model margin
-2.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.072
- 45.2%Success rate45.4%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.072EPA / rush+0.003
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.1%
- +4.85CPOE+2.82
- 42.7%Third-down rate40.8%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.95Points / drive2.19
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 22/41 | 272 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 24 | 125 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Michael Bush | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 13 | 107 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 11/19 | 114 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1/2 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 22 | 150 | 6.8 | 1 |
| James Starks | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Myles White | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.6%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.23
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-2.79