2013 · Week 10 · Division

Final / OT

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

17·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 60°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

44

Model margin

-2.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • +0.031EPA / play-0.096
  • 43.4%Success rate36.3%
  • +0.109EPA / dropback-0.003
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.263
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.4%
  • +1.24CPOE-1.63
  • 41.9%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 73.3%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.33
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
BALQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:43622Turnover on downs0–0
BALQ1 11:0845Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 9:42817Punt0–7
BALQ1 6:34643Field goal0–10
CINQ1 4:391256Missed field goal0–10
BALQ2 13:58721Turnover0–10
CINQ2 11:193-3Punt0–10
BALQ2 10:1430Punt0–10
CINQ2 8:5630Turnover0–10
BALQ2 7:19211Touchdown0–17
CINQ2 6:3034Punt0–17
BALQ2 5:0178Punt0–17
CINQ2 2:4137Punt0–17
BALQ2 1:4830Punt0–17
CINQ2 0:1900End of half0–17
CINQ3 15:001061Field goal3–17
BALQ3 10:3765Punt3–17
CINQ3 7:3210Turnover3–17
BALQ3 7:2536Punt3–17
CINQ3 5:23543Punt3–17
BALQ3 2:59514Punt3–17
CINQ3 0:543-12Punt3–17
BALQ4 14:1857Turnover3–17
CINQ4 12:30961Touchdown10–17
BALQ4 8:221026Turnover10–17
CINQ4 4:01513Turnover10–17
BALQ4 1:5539Punt10–17
CINQ4 1:28660Touchdown17–17
CINOT1036Turnover on downs17–17
BALOT728Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton24/5127423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard14584.10
BenJarvus Green-Ellis9364.00
Andy Dalton6223.70
Marvin Jones177.00
Andrew Hawkins1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green8151511
Tyler Eifert39550
Giovani Bernard88371
Mohamed Sanu39260
Alex Smith1230
Marvin Jones1720

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/3614022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bernard Pierce8313.90
Ray Rice18301.70
Tyrod Taylor11818.00
Joe Flacco144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith514461
Ed Dickson34280
Ray Rice66260
Jacoby Jones22170
Bernard Pierce23120
Marlon Brown13100
Dallas Clark1211
Tandon Doss0100
Deonte Thompson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.5%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.07