Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
44
Model margin
-2.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play-0.096
- 43.4%Success rate36.3%
- +0.109EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.263
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.4%
- +1.24CPOE-1.63
- 41.9%Third-down rate36.0%
- 73.3%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.76Points / drive1.33
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 24/51 | 274 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 8 | 15 | 151 | 1 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 8 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/36 | 140 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Pierce | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 18 | 30 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 14 | 46 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 6 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Tandon Doss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.07