2013 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

21·19

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DET -1

Total

52

Model margin

+1.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.077
  • 43.1%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.072
  • 9.7%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -3.33CPOE+4.85
  • 42.9%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 73.4%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.95
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00565Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 12:371285Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 5:576-1Punt7–7
DETQ1 2:1932Punt7–7
CHIQ1 1:191050Turnover on downs7–7
DETQ2 10:59846Turnover on downs7–7
CHIQ2 7:301365Turnover7–7
DETQ2 0:2411End of half7–7
DETQ3 15:00562Touchdown14–7
CHIQ3 12:5835Punt14–7
DETQ3 11:1737Punt14–7
CHIQ3 9:52769Field goal14–10
DETQ3 7:25418Punt14–10
CHIQ3 4:5862Punt14–10
DETQ3 3:03516Punt14–10
CHIQ4 14:50620Punt14–10
DETQ4 11:5931Turnover14–10
CHIQ4 10:5745Field goal14–13
DETQ4 9:17853Missed field goal14–13
CHIQ4 6:203-1Punt14–13
DETQ4 5:28974Touchdown21–13
CHIQ4 2:221159Touchdown21–19
DETQ4 0:4000End of half21–19

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/3521931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush141057.50
Joique Bell10414.10
Matthew Stafford2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson617832
Brandon Pettigrew55700
Jeremy Ross23280
Joseph Fauria12250
Reggie Bush3680
Kris Durham1151
Joique Bell0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler21/4025011
Josh McCown6/96210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte17331.90
Alshon Jeffery252.50
Michael Bush100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall7121392
Alshon Jeffery9181140
Martellus Bennett46290
Matt Forte47160
Earl Bennett23100
Dante Rosario0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+1.59