Closing spread
DET -1
Total
52
Model margin
+1.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.077
- 43.1%Success rate45.2%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.072
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.9%
- -3.33CPOE+4.85
- 42.9%Third-down rate42.7%
- 73.4%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.75Points / drive1.95
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/35 | 219 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 105 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 17 | 83 | 2 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 5 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/40 | 250 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 6/9 | 62 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 17 | 33 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 12 | 139 | 2 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 9 | 18 | 114 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+1.59